Nine static models (seven basic and two mechanistic) and their respective cutoff values used for predicting cytochrome P450 3A (CYP3A) inhibition, as recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency, were evaluated using data from 119 clinical studies with orally administered midazolam as a substrate. Positive predictive error (PPE) and negative predictive error (NPE) rates were used to assess model performance, based on a cutoff of 1.25-fold change in midazolam area under the curve (AUC) by inhibitor. For reversible inhibition, basic models using total or unbound systemic inhibitor concentration [I] had high NPE rates (46-47%), whereas those using intestinal luminal ([I]gut) values had no NPE but a higher PPE. All basic models for time-dependent inhibition had no NPE and reasonable PPE rates (15-18%). Mechanistic static models that incorporate all interaction mechanisms and organ specific [I] values (enterocyte and hepatic inlet) provided a higher predictive precision, a slightly increased NPE, and a reasonable PPE. Various cutoffs for predicting the likelihood of CYP3A inhibition were evaluated for mechanistic models, and a cutoff of 1.25-fold change in midazolam AUC appears appropriate.

Telithromycin is a substrate and an inhibitor of cytochrome P450 3A (CYP3A4), with dose- and time-dependent nonlinear pharmacokinetics (PK). We hypothesized that the time-dependent inhibition (TDI) of CYP3A4 was responsible for the nonlinear PK of telithromycin and then used physiologically based PK (PBPK) modeling and simulation to verify this mechanism. Telithromycin PBPK models integrating in vitro, in silico, and in vivo PK data ruled out the contribution of enzyme/transporter saturation and suggested that TDI is a plausible mechanism for PK nonlinearity. The model successfully predicted the clinical interaction with the CYP3A4 substrate midazolam, as verified by external data not used for the model-building (intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) midazolam area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) ratio with/without concurrent telithromycin administration: 3.26 and 6.72 predicted vs. 2.20 and 6.11 observed, respectively). Models assuming reversible inhibition failed to predict such strong CYP3A4 inhibition. In the absence of in vitro TDI data, a PBPK model can be used to incorporate TDI mechanisms based on nonlinear PK data to predict clinical drug-drug interactions.