SUMMARY. Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

SUMMARY. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

SUMMARY. The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

Cancer is becoming an important cause of mortality in developing country year by year. During last 10 years 5% of all cancer cases in Mongolian women were accounted for breast cancer. The aim of our study was to determine survival in women with breast cancer in Mongolia. The data of morbidity and mortality on breast cancer were collected retrospectively and were used to analyze stages of the cancer and survival from the time of diagnosis to death depending on stages. During 2003-2012 years totally 1008 cases with breast cancer were registered in National Cancer Centre. The breast cancers had been coded and classified according to International Classification of diseases, 10th Revision (ICD 10). The frequency distribution of cancer patients was evaluated by age, place of residence and stage of diagnosis. In Mongolia in 2003-2012, there were 1008 cases of breast cancer diagnosed and 41 (4.1%), 212 (21%), 553 (54.9%) and 200 (19.8%) of them were diagnosed in Stage I, II, II and IV of the disease respectively. Among patients who died from the cancer there were 4 (2.9%), 17 (12.3%), 71 (51.4%) and 46 (33.3%) who died in Stage I, II, III and IV of the cancer respectively. Among all participants of the study some 3% of women with the breast cancer died within the first year of detection of the cancer and the rest 97% of them survived the first year. In the second year after detection of the cancer 34% of women died and 96% survived. But all women with breast cancer had died by the ninth year after detection of the cancer. In Mongolia only one quarter of breast cancer are diagnosed in the earlier stages (25.1%) of the disease. Therefore, there is a need for improving services for detection of breast cancer in earlier stages.

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