This study examined the contemporaneous effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings, using Nigerian data that spans from 1997 to 2016. The theoretical framework relied on the contemporaneous theory of external vulnerability, which posits that macroeconomic shocks from dominant economies could be transferred to lesser dominant economies through international linkages of global economies and financial market. To achieve objective, this study employed the ARDL and GARCH estimation techniques, to estimate the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings. The results revealed the adverse effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings, affirming the vulnerability of Nigeria's export earnings to external shocks. The practical implication of the finding is that developing economies could insulate their domestic macroeconomic environment from external shocks by diversifying their economies. Importantly, Nigeria should increase diversification of her export base as a coping strategy for protecting against the contemporaneous effect of global economic uncertainties. Contribution/Originality: The study contributes to existing literature focusing on export earnings, which is a major source of vulnerability to external shocks in Nigeria. The use of global economic policy uncertainty index appears novel, compare to previous studies that use global output and inflation.
Core inflation measures have played an important role in the conduct of monetary policy at various central banks around the world. We examine core inflation in Nigeria using non-traditional measures and assess their persistence, to determine whether the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should pay attention to one or other of these measures when assessing inflation developments. We find that the two new measures outperform the official core rate in tracking the persistence of headline inflation. The findings of this study will aid policy making within the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) particularly where inflation targeting is adopted as the monetary policy framework. These core inflation measures provide a useful guide to central bankers both for monetary policy decisions and as a communication tool. They are a better predictor of future inflation depicting the more persistent influences on underlying inflation, which are of interest to policymakers (e.g. Clark, 2001; Blinder and Reis, 2005; Smith, 2004 and Dolmas &Wynne, 2008).
Recognising the importance of monetary and price stability for sustainable growth, many countries’ Central Banks often set certain liquidity targets to be achieved using various monetary policy instruments. This study fills the gap in the literature by employing the ARDL Bounds test to examine the relative effectiveness of a combination of quantity- and price-based policy instruments used by the Central Bank of Nigeria to regulate the level of bank liquidity. Also, the likelihood ratio test is used to determine whether monetary policy instruments work better as a complement (or substitute) concerning liquidity management. Using quarterly data covering 2008/Q1-2020/Q2, we found that, price-based instruments mostly impact liquidity levels in the short- and long-run. The quantity-based instrument shows a significant impact at second lag. However, the impacts of some policy instruments were inconsistent which is partly due to their low usage as short-run measures. We found all the six monetary instruments considered in this study to be complementary for liquidity management. By implication, the combination of monetary instruments for liquidity management is in order. While MPR remains crucial in determining liquidity, a continuous review of its operationality to identify and reduce possible distortions will be beneficial. Also, there is a need for CBN to reassess the disbursement of interventions and their implications on liquidity.
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