This study seeks to examine the relationship between government borrowing behaviour and private sector growth in Nigeria. It utilises the Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) model to analyse the dynamics of government borrowing behaviour on the growth of private sector in Nigeria. The results from impulse response functions and variance decomposition appear to provide evidence that government borrowing behaviour has the tendency of impacting negatively on the effectiveness of private sector grow in Nigeria. This result can be explained, based on the fact that government has higher capacity to borrow than the private sector and this tends to crowd-out private sector in mobilising funds for investment and thus impacted negatively on their capacity to grow. The study, therefore, recommends that both fiscal and monetary authorities should improve on measures and policies that could enhance private sector growth, as higher government debt could create burden for future generations, disrupt movements in interest and exchange rates as well as hinder private investment. Doing this has the potentials of improving performance of private sector and the aggregate economy in Nigeria, since empirical literature is replete with evidence of existence of these channels.
Contribution/Originality:This study improves on the existing literature by examining the channels and extent of the impact of government borrowing behaviour on the private sector growth in Nigeria, as previous literature has shown varying and often conflicting results due to diversity in the structure of the economy and governance. The study, therefore, confronts the existing theories with recent data and tailor-made methodology.
This study examined the contemporaneous effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings, using Nigerian data that spans from 1997 to 2016. The theoretical framework relied on the contemporaneous theory of external vulnerability, which posits that macroeconomic shocks from dominant economies could be transferred to lesser dominant economies through international linkages of global economies and financial market. To achieve objective, this study employed the ARDL and GARCH estimation techniques, to estimate the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings. The results revealed the adverse effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria's export earnings, affirming the vulnerability of Nigeria's export earnings to external shocks. The practical implication of the finding is that developing economies could insulate their domestic macroeconomic environment from external shocks by diversifying their economies. Importantly, Nigeria should increase diversification of her export base as a coping strategy for protecting against the contemporaneous effect of global economic uncertainties. Contribution/Originality: The study contributes to existing literature focusing on export earnings, which is a major source of vulnerability to external shocks in Nigeria. The use of global economic policy uncertainty index appears novel, compare to previous studies that use global output and inflation.
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