No abstract

Earthquakes hit urban centres in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. The new observations can provide information of maximum intensity (or magnitude) for long timescale as an input data for PSHA studies as well. Long-term information can be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred over thousands of years, depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their 'survival' requires that the horizontal ground acceleration (HGA) has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here, we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia. A specially shaped, intact and vulnerable stalagmite in the Plavecká priepast cave was examined in 2013. This stalagmite is suitable for estimating the upper limit of horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by prehistoric earthquakes. The critical HGA values as a function of time going back into the past determined from the stalagmite that we investigated are presented. on the location of the Plavecká priepast cave is consistent with the critical HGA value provided by the stalagmite we investigated.The approach used in this study yields significant new constraints on the seismic hazard, as tectonic structures close to Plavecká priepast cave did not generate strong earthquakes in the last few thousand years. The results of this study are highly relevant given that the two capitals, Vienna and Bratislava, are located within 40 and 70 km of the cave, respectively.

Abstract:The Vyhne Tidal Station of the Earth Science Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences is located in the former mining gallery of St. Anthony of Padua in the Vyhne valley,Štiavnické vrchy Mts., Central Slovakia. It is equipped with a 20.5 metre long quartz-tube extensometer measuring Earth's tides, and long-term tectonic deformations of the Earth's crust. Data between 2001 and 2015 with some diverse gaps were digitally collected, processed and analysed. The effects of the local conditions, such as structure of the observatory, cavity effect, topography and geological features of the surrounding rocks, were investigated in detail and these effects were taken into consideration during the interpretation of the results of the data analysis. Tidal analysis of the extensometric data between 2005 and 2015 revealed that the measured tidal amplitudes are close to the theoretical values. The tidal transfer of the observatory was also investigated by coherence analysis between the theoretical and the measured extensometric data. The coherence is better than 0.9 both in the diurnal and semidiurnal band. The effect of the free core nutation resonance was also investigated in the case of the K1 and P1 tidal components. Since the K1/O1 ratio was about the theoretical value 0.8, than the P1/O1 was between 1.0 and 1.15 instead of the theoretical value of 0.9. The rate of the long-term strain rate was also investigated and the obtained −0.05 μstr/y shows a good agreement with the strain rate inferred from GPS measurements in the Central European GPS Reference Network.