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Distributional properties of emerging market returns may impact on investor ability and willingness to diversify. Investors may also place greater weighting on downside losses, compared to upside gains. Using individual equities in a range of emerging Asian markets, we investigate the potential contribution of downside risk measures to explain asset pricing in these markets. As realized returns are used as a proxy for expected returns, we separately examine conditional returns in upturn and downturn periods, in order to successfully identify risk and return relationships. Results indicate that co-skewness and downside beta are priced by investors. Further testing confirms a separate premium for each measure, confirming that they capture different aspects of downside risk. Robustness tests indicate that, when combined with other risk measures, both retain their explanatory power. Tests also indicate that co-skewness may be the more robust measure.

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This study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has significant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one-third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quarters. Copyright 1995 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

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