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Abstract-This paper presents an adaptive policy design approach based on a system-of-systems (SoS) perspective. Using a case of carbon emissions reduction in the residential sector, the SoS perspective is used as a way to structure the policy issue into interdependent relevant systems. This representation of the system provides a framework to test a large number of hypotheses about the evolution of the system's performance using computational experiments. In particular, in a situation where the realized emission level misses the intermediate target, policies can be adapted to meet the policy target. Our approach shows the different policy designs that decision-makers can envision to influence the overall system performance.Index Terms-Adaptive policy design, carbon emission reduction, household emissions, system-of-systems.

Reducing carbon emissions is needed to tackle such approach, we employ a System-of-Systems (SoS) climate change. However, despite the large uncertaintis . perspective and the exploratory modeling method. We first climaenchngte. Howuev, destpoi tes lg uncerttes describe briefly this methodology. Then, we introduce the suroy u predict7theisemt aprolc desi pa roesse case of the Dutch residential sector. The rest of the paper emloa prdc-te-c aprah Thi pae 7apie. discusses the application of the methodology to support the System-of-Systems perspective and exploratory modeling design ofa adative olicy. method to support the design of an adaptive policy. Using a case in the Dutch residential sector, we use the SoS perspective as a way to decompose the policy issue into interdependent relevant policy systems. This representation 2 Methodology of the policy system provides a framework to test a large number of hypotheses about the evolution of the system's 2.1 Adaptive approach for policymaking behavior by way ofcomputational experiments, which form Policymaking is concerned with making rational choices the core of the exploratory modeling method As some Of regarding a system in order to change the system outcomes the system uncertainties are resolved, policies are adapted in a desired way [4]. The adaptive approach is built upon so that policy goals can still be met. In particular, in a this view. situation in which the realized emission level misses the target, a new set of conditions can be identified to bringIn contrast to the predict-then-act approach, the adaptive the level back to the intended target.approach can be characterized in several ways [5]. First, it does not require that all uncertainties are resolved before a

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