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We present a stochastic dynamic simulation model for exploration and extraction of seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) mineral deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The model is developed based on selected industry knowledge, expectations, and perceptions elicited through a participatory systems mapping session with 82 participants and 20 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, academia, and the public policy sector. Using the model, we simulate the expected ranges of resource- and economic potential. The simulation results indicate an expected commercial resource base of 1.8 to 3 million tons of copper, zinc, and cobalt, in which copper makes out the most significant part. Relating to the expected commercial resource base, we highlight a discrepancy between academic and industrial expectations, in which the academic expectations are more conservative than the industrial expectations. The corresponding net present values lie in the range of a net present loss of 970 million USD up to a net present gain of 2.53 billion USD, in which the academic expectations are projected to yield a negative net present value, while the industrial expectations are projected to yield a positive net present value. Closer investigation of the results reveals that one of the main challenges regarding SMS exploration and extraction is the initial exploration costs associated with coring operations. These costs are expected to be high with today’s exploration technology. Moreover, they occur relatively early in time compared to revenue-generating activity, which has a significant negative impact on the net present value of the industry due to discounting. Thus, a key focus of the industry should be to find ways to reduce the costs associated with coring operations and/or the time it takes from initial exploration to extraction and generation of revenue.

In the spring of 2023, the subsea industry in Norway is gearing up for an opening of the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) for deep-sea mineral exploration and extraction. Existing research indicates that the profitability of deep-sea mining with today's technology heavily depends on high ore grades. This study explores the potential for emerging techno-operational concepts for exploration to affect the profitability of seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) industry on the NCS. By way of computer simulation, the study analyzes technologies currently or soon poised to enter the subsea market concerning their advantage or disadvantage for the SMS industry on the NCS. The study indicates a significant advantage in developing geophysical sampling technology for assessing mineral resources and some advantage in developing unmanned surface vessels for regional surveys. It further indicates that developing fleet-operated autonomous underwater vehicle concepts for high-resolution surveys is not only moot but possibly counterproductive. The study thereby contributes techno-operational insight for a budding industry currently looking for technology to improve commercial prospects.

In the spring of 2023, the subsea industry in Norway is gearing up for an opening of the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) for deep-sea mineral exploration and extraction. Existing research indicates that the profitability of deep-sea mining with today's technology heavily depends on high ore grades. This study explores the potential for emerging techno-operational concepts for exploration to affect the profitability of Seafloor Massive Sulfides (SMS) Industry on the NCS. By way of computer simulation, the study analyzes technologies currently, or soon, poised to enter the subsea market, with regard to their advantage or disadvantage for the SMS industry on the NCS. The study indicates that there is significant advantage in developing geophysical sampling technology for assessing mineral resources and some advantage in developing unmanned surface vessels for regional surveys. It further indicates that developing fleet operated autonomous underwater vehicle concepts for high-resolution surveys is not only moot, but possibly counterproductive. The study thereby contributes techno-operational insight for a budding industry currently looking for technology to improve commercial prospects.