No abstract

The unprecedented melting of Arctic ice provides new opportunities for shipping by decreasing the distance for commercial traffic between Asia and Europe by up to 40%. However, its development is associated with inevitable problems caused by the vulnerability of polar ecosystems. As research methods, we have chosen system and comparative analyses of open sources; national development strategies of the Russian Federation (primarily), China, Northern Europe, and the USA (partially); and scientific articles from the Scopus and Elibrary databases. As a result, we have identified the reasons for possible risk situations for the Arctic region’s sustainable development: mining on the shelf, oil and oil product spills during the transportation of goods and fishing activities, etc. Black carbon (soot) emitted from using marine diesel fuel is the main atmospheric air pollutant. In addition, actively developing infrastructure (ports and new industrial zones) also has a negative anthropogenic impact on the environment. Within the framework of an ecosystem approach, we studied ways to prevent risky situations when planning logistics routes using the Northern Sea Route. We concluded about the need to expand the icebreaker fleet. We proposed a conceptual model of the risk management system based on the monitoring of the key indicators’ system. We identified possible types of risks according to the place of their occurrence and according to the stages of the life cycle of such systems. Furthermore, we provided the steps of the risk management system and an example of the application of a “bow-tie” diagram—a qualitative method for assessing the risk of “collision”.

The Russian Arctic development is an investment direction, which is planned through a system of so-called “support zones” of various development degrees, it is a priority for Russia and can have a positive effect. Since integrated territorial development is associated with significant cargo flows of raw materials, materials and goods, logistics chains will include various transport modes, which will lead to the development of infrastructure (including the construction and reconstruction of seaports, the network of the railways and roads expansion) and the emergence of new international transport corridors (ITCs). A scientifically based solution to the problems of constructing a delivery route, including the location of transshipment points, logistics terminals and the rolling stock selection, will ensure the sustainable territories development through which ITCs pass. However, these tasks, which constitute the activity of organizing multimodal transportation, are associated with various types of risks, the successful solution of which, in this case, depends on the sustainable territorial development of these territories. Therefore, the research objective is to establish the relationship between the development of transport networks and the development of the Arctic region, the designation of possible prospects for the development of both multimodal transportation as a whole as a strategic event, and the contribution of each kind of transport, as well as the risks of creating and using international transport corridors, including cumulative impact on the environment. As a result of the literature analysis, we have considered the causes and consequences of the improper planning of supply chains and infrastructure, then we have indicated the role of new transport corridors in the development of territories. We have built a tree of problems in order to systematize risk situations and identify root causes and consequences. A method for calculating the cargo delivery time is proposed, taking into account the multimodality of logistics chains as well as measures that help reduce risks.