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Finnish government allowed in October 2013 operating high capacity vehicles (HCV) with a maximum weight limit of 76 t on Finnish roads. An analysis on how HCVs have affected the Finnish road freight transport sector is presented here based on a continuous time series data from 2013 to 2017. The analysis shows a significant increase in the average payload weight and a transition from 7-axle to 8-and 9-axle articulated vehicle combinations, which allow the higher weights. Truck mileage of 225 million km has been avoided from October 2013 until the end of 2017 and avoided mileage corresponded in 2017 to approximately 4% of total truck mileage in Finland. This equals around 126 million € cost savings in 2017 and 0.1 Mt of CO 2 emissions reduction in road freight, even after taking into account that there has been some modal shift from rail to road.

Purpose-Road freight carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions are determined by a complex interaction between shippers and hauliers within the boundaries set by regulations and economic factors. It is necessary to gain understanding about the various driving forces and trends affecting these to promote low carbon future. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors affect the long-term future development of road freight CO 2 emissions and whether the long-term emission targets will be achieved. Design/methodology/approach-An international comparison of similar Delphi surveys is carried out in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Findings-The Delphi surveys indicate that the structural change of the economy, changes of consumer habits, concerns of energy and environment and changes in logistics practices and technology are the overarching trends shaping the future of the energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions of road freight transport. The expert forecasts for Finland and Sweden highlight that reaching the carbon emission target of 30 per cent reduction for the year 2030 is possible. However, the CO 2 emissions may also increase significantly even though the CO 2 intensity would decrease, as the Norwegian forecast shows. Originality/value-This study combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results confirmed that similar factors are seen to affect the future in all three countries, but with some national differences in the likely effects of the factors. Future research using the same methodology would enable wider analysis of the global significance of these driving forces. Keywords Forecasting, CO 2 emissions, Delphi survey, Road freight transport Paper type Research paper

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