According to the predictive coding framework, percepts emerge from combinations of sensory input and prior knowledge, whose relative contributions depend on their reliability. Recent predictive coding theories suggest that Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) could be characterized by an atypical weighting of priors. Here, we assessed whether individuals with ASD can flexibly adjust the weight (precision) of the prior to the context. Thirty‐one neurotypical adults (NT) and 26 adults with ASD participated in a visual discrimination task designed to elicit a time‐order effect (TOE). The TOE reflects the integration of priors with sensory estimates. We used two experimental contexts: a narrow stimulus range (Narrow condition) and a broader range (Broad condition) in order to induce a prior with a higher and lower precision, respectively. Both groups learned a prior that biased their perception, as shown with the TOE. As expected, the NT group had a larger TOE in the Narrow condition than in the Broad condition, revealing a contextual adjustment of the prior precision. In contrast, ASD participants were more inflexible: the extent of the TOE was not modulated by the context. In addition, the accuracy increased when the stimulus range decreased in both group, which may be interpreted as a contextual adjustment of the sensory precision. To conclude, adults with and without ASD implicitly learned a prior mean, but ASD participants failed to flexibly adjust the prior precision to the context. This increased inflexibility in ASD could account for many symptoms, such as their intolerance of uncertainty. Lay Summary Based on our experience, we have expectations about our environment. Theories suggest that the symptoms encountered in autism could be due to atypical expectations, leading to an impression of an unpredictable world. Using a visual discrimination task, we showed that adults with and without autism were biased by their expectations. Yet, the extent to which expectations biased perception did not depend on the context in autism. This higher inflexibility found in autism may explain symptoms such as resistance to change.

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