Background Movement information can improve conservation of imperiled species, yet movement is not quantified for many organisms in need of conservation. Prairie chub (Macrhybopsis australis) is a regionally endemic freshwater fish with unquantified movement ecology and currently considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The purpose of this study was to test competing ecological theories for prairie chub movement, including the colonization cycle hypothesis (CCH) that posits adults must make upstream movements to compensate for downstream drift at early life stages, and the restricted movement paradigm (RMP) that describes populations as heterogeneous mixes of mostly stationary and few mobile fish. Methods We tagged prairie chub with visible implant elastomer during the summer (May–August) of 2019 and 2020 to estimate net distance moved (m) and movement rate (m/d). We tested the hypotheses that observed prairie chub movement would be greater than expected under the RMP and that prairie chub movement would be biased in an upstream direction as predicted by the CCH. Results We tagged 5771 prairie chub and recaptured 213 individuals across 2019 and 2020. The stationary and mobile components of the prairie chub population moved an order of magnitude further and faster than expected under the RMP during both years. However, we found only limited evidence of upstream bias in adult prairie chub movement as would be expected under the CCH. Conclusions Our findings are partly inconsistent with the RMP and the CCH, and instead closely follow the drift paradox (DP), in which upstream populations persist despite presumed downstream drift during early life stages and in the apparent absence of upstream bias in recolonization. Previous mathematical solutions to the DP suggest organisms that experience drift maintain upstream populations through either minimization of drift periods such that small amounts of upstream movement are needed to counter the effects of advection or increasing dispersal regardless of directionality. We conclude that the resolution to the DP for prairie chub is an increase in total dispersal and our results provide insight into the spatial scales at which prairie chub conservation and management may need to operate to maintain broad-scale habitat connectivity.

ObjectiveRegulation of river flow regimes by dams and diversions impacts aquatic biota and ecosystems globally. However, our understanding of the ecological consequences of flow alteration and ecological benefits of flow restoration lags behind our ability to manipulate flows, and there is a need for broader development of flow–ecology relationships. Approaches for establishing flow–ecology relationships have recently shifted away from state‐based methods that analyze snapshots of ecological conditions and towards rate‐based methods focused on mechanisms that link hydrology with dynamics of important ecological components and processes.MethodsWe used a rate‐based approach to validate environmental flow standards developed for the lower Brazos River, Texas, by analyzing the relationship between flow regime components and recruitment strength of imperiled Shoal Chub Macrhybopsis hyostoma, a fluvial specialist and pelagic‐broadcast‐spawning fish. We collected 254 age‐0 Shoal Chub (9–40 mm total length), extracted their otoliths to estimate age in days, and used a generalized additive model to regress the number of captured recruits that hatched on a calendar date against flow regime metrics, such as pulse magnitude, flow rate of change, and pulse timing in relation to environmental flow standards proposed by a science advisory committee (Brazos Basin and Bay Area Expert Science Team).ResultThe model revealed that flow magnitude, rate of change, and timing were all significant predictors that collectively explained 60% of variation in the recruitment strength index. Hindcasting for 1919–2020 showed a general reduction in recruitment strength following commencement of flow regulation in the lower Brazos River and revealed that high recruitment correlated with years in which most or all proposed flow tiers were attained, whereas low recruitment correlated with years when less than half of the targeted tiers were attained.ConclusionOur work represents an effective validation method for environmental flow recommendations and reveals specific flow regimes that benefit an imperiled fish species.

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