1. Dam construction threatens global aquatic biodiversity by fragmenting stream networks and altering flow regimes. The negative effects of dams are exacerbated by increased drought periods and associated water withdrawals, especially in semi-arid regions. Stream fishes are particularly threatened owing to their mobile nature and requirement for multiple habitats to complete their life cycles. An understanding of relationships with fragmentation and flow regimes, particularly as coarse-scale (e.g. catchment) constraints on species distributions, is essential for stream fish conservation strategies. Prairie chub (Macrhybopsis australis) is a small-bodied minnow (Cyprinidae) with poorly understood ecology endemic to the North American Great Plains.Suspected declines in abundance and extirpations have resulted in conservation interest for prairie chub at state and federal levels. Prairie chub is thought to share its reproductive strategy with pelagic-broadcast spawning minnows (pelagophils). Freshwater pelagic-broadcast spawning fishes have been disproportionately affected by fragmentation and streamflow alteration globally.3. Relationships of prairie chub occurrence with coarse-scale fragmentation and streamflow metrics were examined in the upper Red River catchment. Occurrence probability was modelled using existing survey data, while accounting for variable detection. The modelled relationships were used to project the distribution of prairie chub in both a wet and dry climatic period.4. The probability of prairie chub occurrence was essentially zero at sites with higher densities of upstream dams, but increased sharply with increases in flow magnitude, downstream open mainstem, and flood duration. The projected distribution of prairie chub was broader than indicated by naïve occurrence, but similar in both climatic periods. The occurrence relationships are consistent with the hypotheses of pelagic broadcast spawning and represent coarse-scale constraints that are useful for identifying areas of the stream network with higher potential for finer-scale prairie chub conservation and recovery efforts. In addition to informing pelagophil conservation, the relationships are also applicable to pelagic-broadcast spawning fishes in marine environments.

Background Movement information can improve conservation of imperiled species, yet movement is not quantified for many organisms in need of conservation. Prairie chub (Macrhybopsis australis) is a regionally endemic freshwater fish with unquantified movement ecology and currently considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The purpose of this study was to test competing ecological theories for prairie chub movement, including the colonization cycle hypothesis (CCH) that posits adults must make upstream movements to compensate for downstream drift at early life stages, and the restricted movement paradigm (RMP) that describes populations as heterogeneous mixes of mostly stationary and few mobile fish. Methods We tagged prairie chub with visible implant elastomer during the summer (May–August) of 2019 and 2020 to estimate net distance moved (m) and movement rate (m/d). We tested the hypotheses that observed prairie chub movement would be greater than expected under the RMP and that prairie chub movement would be biased in an upstream direction as predicted by the CCH. Results We tagged 5771 prairie chub and recaptured 213 individuals across 2019 and 2020. The stationary and mobile components of the prairie chub population moved an order of magnitude further and faster than expected under the RMP during both years. However, we found only limited evidence of upstream bias in adult prairie chub movement as would be expected under the CCH. Conclusions Our findings are partly inconsistent with the RMP and the CCH, and instead closely follow the drift paradox (DP), in which upstream populations persist despite presumed downstream drift during early life stages and in the apparent absence of upstream bias in recolonization. Previous mathematical solutions to the DP suggest organisms that experience drift maintain upstream populations through either minimization of drift periods such that small amounts of upstream movement are needed to counter the effects of advection or increasing dispersal regardless of directionality. We conclude that the resolution to the DP for prairie chub is an increase in total dispersal and our results provide insight into the spatial scales at which prairie chub conservation and management may need to operate to maintain broad-scale habitat connectivity.

ObjectiveThe Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis is a poorly studied minnow species endemic to the upper Red River basin and is of both state and federal conservation interest due to uncertainty about its life history and potential listing status. The upper Red River basin of Oklahoma and Texas is a harsh environment where drought and extreme flow events are exacerbated by human alterations. As an assumed pelagic‐broadcast‐spawning minnow, the Prairie Chub is capable of a protracted spawning season and larval fish survival is assumed to be linked to discharge and streamflow variability.MethodsWe systematically collected 2,017 age‐0 Prairie Chub from seven sites (North Fork Red River, Salt Fork Red River, Pease River, Red River, Prairie Dog Town Fork Red River, North Wichita River, and South Wichita River) with variable flow patterns during April–September 2019 and May–August 2020. We used otolith age estimates and back calculations to determine successful spawning dates. We used a hurdle model framework to examine relationships between hatch probability and hatch frequency.ResultHatch probability had a negative relationship with calendar day and declined as calendar day increased. Hatch counts peaked in late June and early July and declined thereafter in 2019 but showed no discernible peak during the spawning season in 2020. Hatch probability during the spawning season increased with relative flow and air temperature. Increased hatch counts were also positively related to discharge variability (CV) for the 10 d prior to hatch dates.ConclusionOur findings indicated that successful hatches had considerable spatial and temporal variability, with some sites contributing minimally to the population during some years. Spatial and temporal variability of hatch probability and hatch frequencies pose a variety of considerations for future conservation and management efforts, particularly given the pending federal listing status of the species.

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ObjectiveA central challenge in applied ecology is understanding how organisms are spatially and temporally distributed and how management might be tailored to maintain or restore species distributions. The niche concept is central to understanding species distributions, but the diversity of niche definitions requires that multiple dimensions be considered. For example, the Grinnellian niche concept focuses on environmental conditions that allow species to persist, the Eltonian niche concept stresses the influence of biotic interactions, and the fundamental niche concept considers both abiotic and biotic environmental features to define spaces that organisms could occupy.MethodsWe combined abiotic (A), biotic (B), and movement (M) information (collectively, BAM model) to map the multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis, a regionally endemic freshwater fish currently under review for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated A using remotely sensed environmental riverscape variables, B using the spatial distribution of a hybridization zone between Prairie Chub and Shoal Chub M. hyostoma, and M using data from a mark–recapture study.ResultThe BAM model estimated the spatial extent of multiple niches, including the Grinnellian (A; extent = 944 km of river), Eltonian (B; 2974 km), and fundamental niche (overlap of A + B; 645 km) niches. When A, B, and M components were combined, the estimated extent of the Prairie Chub niche was 645 km.ConclusionOur work shows that the realized, multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub includes medium to large rivers with high habitat connectivity in the upper–middle Red River basin upstream of the distribution of Shoal Chub. The current Prairie Chub distribution could be maintained by preventing further habitat fragmentation and maintaining the environmental gradient separating Prairie Chub from Shoal Chub. Expansion of the species distribution may be possible through restoration of longitudinal fluvial connectivity.