In the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical protective measures taken by individuals remain pivotal. This study aims to explore what motivates individuals to engage in such measures. Based on existing empirical findings as well as prominent behavioural theories, a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) of predictors for pandemic protective behaviour was estimated using a representative German sample (n = 437). The study was preregistered at OSF. The model explains 69% of the variance for behavioural intention, which is strongly correlated with behaviour (ρ = 0.84). The most influential predictor for protective behaviour is its perceived efficacy, followed by normative beliefs and perceptions about costs for protective behaviour. Distrusting beliefs in science and scientists negatively predicted response perceptions and were also strongly and negatively correlated with behaviour. Knowledge about COVID-19 was weakly linked with perceived response efficacy, as well as with behaviour. These findings suggest that communication strategies surrounding COVID-19 should emphasise the efficacy of responses and foster a sense of responsibility.

Modeling infectious diseases has been shown to be of great importance and utility during the ongoing COVID-pandemic. From today's globalized information landscape, however, a plethora of new factors arise that have not been covered in previous models. In this paper, we present an agent-based model that reflects the complex interplay between the spread of a pathogen and individual protective behaviors under the influence of media messaging. We use the Rescorla-Wagner model of associative learning for the growth and extinction of fear, a factor that has been proposed as a major contributor in the determination of protective behavior. The model space, as well as heterogeneous social structures among the agents, are created from empirical data. We incorporate factors like age, gender, wealth, and attitudes towards public health institutions.The model is able to reproduce the empirical trends of fear and protective behavior in Germany but struggles to simulate the accurate scale of disease spread. The decline of fear seems to promote a second wave of disease and the model suggests that individual protective behavior has a significant impact on the outcome of the epidemic. The influence of media in the form of messages promoting protective behavior is negligible in the model. Further research regarding factors influencing long-term protective behavior is recommended to improve communication and mitigation strategies.

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In the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical protective measures taken by individuals remain pivotal. Based on existing empirical findings as well as prominent behavioural theories, a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) of predictors for pandemic protective behaviour was estimated using a representative German sample (n = 437). The study was preregistered at OSF. The model explains 69% of the variance for behavioural intention, which is strongly correlated with behaviour (rho= .84). The most influential predictor for protective behaviour is its perceived efficacy, followed by normative beliefs and perceptions about costs for protective behaviour. Distrusting beliefs in science and scientists negatively predicted response perceptions and were also strongly and negatively correlated with behaviour. Knowledge about COVID-19 was weakly linked with perceived response efficacy, as well as with behaviour. These findings suggest that communication strategies surrounding COVID-19 should emphasise the efficacy of responses and foster a sense of responsibility.

No abstract