ObjectivesMycobacterium tuberculosis can exist in different states in vitro, which can be denoted as fast multiplying, slow multiplying and non-multiplying. Characterizing the natural growth of M. tuberculosis could provide a framework for accurate characterization of drug effects on the different bacterial states.MethodsThe natural growth data of M. tuberculosis H37Rv used in this study consisted of viability defined as cfu versus time based on data from an in vitro hypoxia system. External validation of the natural growth model was conducted using data representing the rate of incorporation of radiolabelled methionine into proteins by the bacteria. Rifampicin time–kill curves from log-phase (0.25–16 mg/L) and stationary-phase (0.5–64 mg/L) cultures were used to assess the model's ability to describe drug effects by evaluating different linear and non-linear exposure–response relationships.ResultsThe final pharmacometric model consisted of a three-compartment differential equation system representing fast-, slow- and non-multiplying bacteria. Model predictions correlated well with the external data (R2 = 0.98). The rifampicin effects on log-phase and stationary-phase cultures were separately and simultaneously described by including the drug effect on the different bacterial states. The predicted reduction in log10 cfu after 14 days and at 0.5 mg/L was 2.2 and 0.8 in the log-phase and stationary-phase systems, respectively.ConclusionsThe model provides predictions of the change in bacterial numbers for the different bacterial states with and without drug effect and could thus be used as a framework for studying anti-tubercular drug effects in vitro.

Treatment failure of antibiotic therapy due to insufficient efficacy or occurrence of toxicity is a major clinical challenge, and is expected to become even more urgent with the global rise of antibiotic resistance. Strategies to optimize treatment in individual patients are therefore of crucial importance. Currently, therapeutic drug monitoring plays an important role in optimizing antibiotic exposure to reduce treatment failure and toxicity. Biomarker-based strategies may be a powerful tool to further quantify and monitor antibiotic treatment response, and reduce variation in treatment response between patients. Host response biomarkers, such as CRP, procalcitonin, IL-6, and presepsin, could potentially carry significant information to be utilized for treatment individualization. To achieve this, the complex interactions among immune system, pathogen, drug, and biomarker need to be better understood and characterized. The purpose of this tutorial is to discuss the use and evidence of currently available biomarker-based approaches to inform antibiotic treatment. To this end, we also included a discussion on how treatment response biomarker data from preclinical, healthy volunteer, and patient-based studies can be further characterized using pharmacometric and system pharmacology based modeling approaches. As an illustrative example of how such modeling strategies can be used, we describe a case study in which we quantitatively characterize procalcitonin dynamics in relation to antibiotic treatments in patients with sepsis.

Collateral sensitivity (CS)-based antibiotic treatments, where increased resistance to one antibiotic leads to increased sensitivity to a second antibiotic, may have the potential to limit the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. However, it remains unclear how to best design CS-based treatment schedules. To address this problem, we use mathematical modelling to study the effects of pathogen- and drug-specific characteristics for different treatment designs on bacterial population dynamics and resistance evolution. We confirm that simultaneous and one-day cycling treatments could supress resistance in the presence of CS. We show that the efficacy of CS-based cycling therapies depends critically on the order of drug administration. Finally, we find that reciprocal CS is not essential to suppress resistance, a result that significantly broadens treatment options given the ubiquity of one-way CS in pathogens. Overall, our analyses identify key design principles of CS-based treatment strategies and provide guidance to develop treatment schedules to suppress resistance.