boring herds, and risk factors such as cattle density and the number of imported cattle varied greatly between territories. Differences were also found in both testing protocols and definitions of freedom from disease. The observed heterogeneity in both the context and CEP design will create difficulties when comparing different CEP in terms of confidence of freedom from infection. These results highlight the need for a standardized practical methodology to objectively and quantitatively determine confidence of freedom resulting from different CEP around the world.

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Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an important endemic infection. However, no information was available on whether it would be economically beneficial to implement a national control program in the Netherlands. Therefore, a stochastic simulation model was developed in which control scenarios were added to compare the epidemiological and economic consequences of BVDV control in Dutch dairy herds in the next 10 yr. In the epidemiological part of the model, herds could be classified as susceptible, infectious, recovered, or vaccinated. The outputs of the epidemiological module served as input for the economic module. Net costs that could be attributed to bovine viral diarrhea consisted of production losses, costs for testing, and culling persistently infected cattle in the present voluntary Dutch BVDV control program and costs for vaccination. Four different control scenarios were simulated, involving testing and culling of persistently infected (based on serum or ear-notch testing), and monitoring BVDV statuses and vaccination and were derived from BVDV control programs that are currently executed in Europe. The costs and benefits of BVDV control in the current situation and in each of the simulated control scenarios were evaluated assuming an annual discount rate of 2%. The model estimated a mean BVDV herd prevalence of 18.0% in 2014 and showed a slightly decreasing prevalence over time. The outputs seemed realistic for the present situation in the Netherlands when compared with actual survey data. The average annual net costs associated with bovine viral diarrhea were estimated at €27.8 million for the dairy industry. Two control scenarios were beneficial in controlling BVDV during the study period (between 2015 and 2025). In the scenario where tracing and removing of PI animals and monitoring of the subsequent status was obligatory, the benefit to cost (B/C) ratio was 1.5 (€1.5 benefit for each invested euro). In the scenario in which the BVDV status of all herds was determined, followed by voluntary measures before control measures became obligatory, the B/C ratio was 1.1. The B/C ratio of the scenarios included could be even higher when it was assumed that nondairy herds participated in the control program as well. The model provided the opportunity to compare the effect of voluntary and mandatory control scenarios on the BVDV prevalence and costs and benefits relative to the current situation in the Netherlands. The model was used to support policy makers in their decisions about a BVDV control program.

The existence, stage of eradication and design of control programmes (CPs) for diseases that are not regulated by the EU differ between Member States. When freedom from infection is reached or being pursued, safe trade is essential to protect or reach that status. The aim of STOC free, a collaborative project between six countries, is to develop and validate a framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CPs across herds, regions or countries. The framework consists of a model combined with a tool to facilitate the collection of the necessary parameters. All relevant actions taken in a CP are included in a Bayesian network model, which allows prior distributions for most parameters. In addition, frequency of occurrence and risk estimates for factors that influence either the probability of introduction or temporary misclassification leading to delayed detection of the infection are included in the model. Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is used as an example disease. Many countries have CPs in place for BVDV and although elements of the CPs are similar, biosecurity measures and testing protocols, including types of tests and testing frequency, as well as target groups, differ widely. Although the initially developed framework is based on BVDV, the aim is to make it sufficiently generic to be adaptable to CPs for other diseases and possibly other species. Thus, STOC free will result in a single general framework, adaptable to multiple disease CPs, which aims to enhance the safety of trade.

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