2015
DOI: 10.3168/jds.2014-9255
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Evaluation of the epidemiological and economic consequences of control scenarios for bovine viral diarrhea virus in dairy herds

Abstract: Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an important endemic infection. However, no information was available on whether it would be economically beneficial to implement a national control program in the Netherlands. Therefore, a stochastic simulation model was developed in which control scenarios were added to compare the epidemiological and economic consequences of BVDV control in Dutch dairy herds in the next 10 yr. In the epidemiological part of the model, herds could be classified as susceptible, infectious… Show more

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Cited by 31 publications
(16 citation statements)
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“…However, when these six studies were compared with the other incorporated studies ( n = 13, see Table S4) which do not use the stochastic model by Gunn et al, (), the following differences were identified: the mean annual production losses per animal was approximately €7.00 higher; different ex‐ante or ex‐post methods were used, while the studies based on the model by Gunn et al, () are all prediction studies; varying assumptions about the effectiveness of mitigation options (e.g., some studies assumed 100% efficacy of vaccine which caused no spread of BVDV and thus no production losses; Santman‐Berends, Mars, Duijn, & Schaik, ), and about the transmission probabilities. For instance, one study assumed that 60% of all birth of PI animals in the herds will not lead to losses from BVDV infections (Santman‐Berends et al, ) or other studies taken a constant transmission rate into account (Pasman et al, ), or neglected infection of naïve herds, or production losses by infected calves, youngstock, or transiently‐infected animals such as by Pasman et al, (), Reichel, Hill, and Voges (), Santman‐Berends et al, (), Thomann et al, () and Marschik et al, (). The latter could lead to underestimation of the true economic impact.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, when these six studies were compared with the other incorporated studies ( n = 13, see Table S4) which do not use the stochastic model by Gunn et al, (), the following differences were identified: the mean annual production losses per animal was approximately €7.00 higher; different ex‐ante or ex‐post methods were used, while the studies based on the model by Gunn et al, () are all prediction studies; varying assumptions about the effectiveness of mitigation options (e.g., some studies assumed 100% efficacy of vaccine which caused no spread of BVDV and thus no production losses; Santman‐Berends, Mars, Duijn, & Schaik, ), and about the transmission probabilities. For instance, one study assumed that 60% of all birth of PI animals in the herds will not lead to losses from BVDV infections (Santman‐Berends et al, ) or other studies taken a constant transmission rate into account (Pasman et al, ), or neglected infection of naïve herds, or production losses by infected calves, youngstock, or transiently‐infected animals such as by Pasman et al, (), Reichel, Hill, and Voges (), Santman‐Berends et al, (), Thomann et al, () and Marschik et al, (). The latter could lead to underestimation of the true economic impact.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…There was also a paper 53 that used the authors’ own calculations to produce a figure for the impact of BVD in the Hungarian dairy sector of £11.20 (adjusted); however, there was no effect of infertility, immunosuppression or other subclinical effects. Santman-Berends and others 54 recently produced a stochastic model for the eradication of BVD from the Netherlands’ dairy industry. It was assumed that a herd would go from immune to susceptible when 50 per cent of the herd were seronegative through replacement only, not through waning of immunity.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The paper based the impact figures on Hogeveen and others, 55 which is in Dutch. Santman-Berends and others 54 produced an average figure of €72 per milking cow, altered for inflation. Production losses in youngstock were not considered.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The 2% used in our analysis was estimated using a standard procedure and is based on current market values. Discount rates used in several previous economic evaluations for BVD range from 2%-4% (Häsler et al, 2012;Houe, 2003;Santman-Berends et al, 2015;Valle et al, 2005). The IRR estimated in this study (16.7%; 5% percentile: 6.7%) implies that discounting with a rate up to these values would still result in a positive NPV, as the IRR is reflecting the discount rate that would make the NPV equal to zero (Rushton et al, 1999).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 65%