Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop the concept of complex estimation of bankruptcy probability of agrarian enterprises in Ukraine, taking into account the specifics of agricultural activities. Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, the following research methods were used: abstract-logical (at disclosing the essence of the concept of “bankruptcy”); dialectical (for theoretical generalizations on determining the problems and ways to overcome them, drawing conclusions); expert estimations, comparative analysis, analysis and synthesis (at developing the concept of estimating the probability of bankruptcy); relative indicators-coefficients (at studying models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy occurrence); monographic (for in-depth study of separate types of factors affecting the probability of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular (at presenting the research results). Results. It has been proven that the discriminant analysis for estimating the probability of bankruptcy (the construction of multifactor models that summarize the most important financial indicators in the integrated index) does not take into account the industry characteristics of agrarian enterprises. The concept of bankruptcy diagnostics is proposed, which combines discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative signs of a possible crisis of an agrarian enterprise. The indicators selected for expert examination cover non-financial factors – the risks and threats to agricultural production in Ukraine, and their generalization may specify the risk of bankruptcy occurrence. The scoring model has been derived by the method of expert estimations, the scale has been developed, which is combined with the discriminant one that will enable to bring the results of the research into the interval of the indicator for estimating the occurrence of bankruptcy. Originality / scientific novelty. The definition of the term “bankruptcy” has been improved: the author’s definition combines the economic and legal approaches to it. The main risks of agricultural activities in Ukraine have been specified and their impact on the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises has been outlined. It has been developed the methodological concept for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, which takes into account informal factors. For the first time, in order to predict the bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, it has been proposed to combine discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative indicators that increase its risk in agriculture. Practical value / implications. The application of the developed methodology provides an opportunity for the agrarian enterprise of timely responding to the threats of financial crisis and bankruptcy in order to prevent them. The proposed approach can be used as an element of estimating the insurance risk or investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises. In case of its adaptation, the methodology can be used in foreign practice.

Об'єктом дослідження є підприємницькі ризики в аграрній сфері України та ступінь їхнього впливу на результати сільськогосподарської діяльності. Однією із найбільших проблем підприємницької діяльності є наявність ризиків, проте виміряти їх складно. На даний час відсутній визнаний науковою спільнотою та експертами-практиками стандарт (протокол) оцінки ризиків, який описує її завдання, методологію, процедури, статистичні аспекти та організацію дослідження. Отже, вдосконалення методичних підходів оцінки підприємницьких ризиків залишається важливим. В ході дослідження використовувались наступні методи: абстрактно-логічний, порівняльного аналізу, статистичний, монографічний, експертних оцінок, графічний, табличний, діалектичний. Для аналізу ризиків була запропонована система індикаторів, які формувались з урахуванням прийомів декомпозиції, аналізу та синтезу. Під час відбору видів ризиків до системи індикаторів був застосований контент-аналіз літературних джерел авторства фахівців у сфері аграрних ризиків. Отриманий результат полягає у розробці концепції авторської методики якісної оцінки впливу ризиків в сільському господарстві на результати діяльності. Методика має ряд особливостей, зокрема, вона враховує вплив найбільших галузевих ризиків -природних, макроекономічних, внутрішньоекономічних, політичних та кримінальних. Запропонована методика оцінки включає етапи: 1. Експертна оцінка 20 чинників, які можуть найбільш суттєво вплинути на результати сільськогосподарської діяльності. Експерти у балах за шкалою від 1 до 5 оцінюють ступінь впливу фактора. 2. Перевірка узгодженості думок експертів. 3. Розрахунок середньої бальної оцінки ризиків з подальшою градацією ступеня ризику за групами: низький або помірний, припустимий та критично небезпечний рівень ризику. 4. Формування висновків щодо управління ризиками діяльності. У порівнянні з аналогічними методами аналізу ризиків запропонована методика має наступні переваги: -комплексний підхід, можливість деталізації окремих ризиків; -простота математичних розрахунків; -економія часу та ресурсів завдяки аналізу невеликої кількості чинників, що мають найбільший вплив на сільськогосподарську діяльність; -мінімізація суб'єктивності оцінок експертів; -можливість використання результатів в оцінці страхового ризику або оцінці інвестиційної привабливості проектів.Завдяки застосуванню даної методики забезпечується можливість отримання однозначної та науково обґрунтованої відповіді на питання «Наскільки високий ризик зазнати збитків у даній діяльності?».Ключові слова: підприємницький ризик, методика оцінки ризиків, сільське господарство.

The aim of the study is to develop the concept of a comprehensive assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine, taking into account the specifics of agricultural activities. We identified the main threats to agricultural activity and their impact on increasing the probability of bankruptcy of an agricultural enterprise; the factors that increase the probability of bankruptcy for enterprises of the agrarian sector of Ukraine are summarized. To achieve this aim, the following research methods and techniques were used: method of expert assessments, comparative analysis approach, analysis and synthesis methods (in developing the concept of assessing the probability of bankruptcy); coefficient method of relative indicators (when studying models of estimating the probability of bankruptcy); monographic technique (for in-depth study of individual types of factors influencing the likelihood of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular method (when presenting the results of the study). The concept of a methodology for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises, which takes into account informal factors, has been developed. The application of the developed methodology provides the agricultural enterprise with the opportunity to respond in a timely manner in order to prevent the financial crisis and bankruptcy. The proposed approach can be used as an element of assessing the insurance risk or investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises. Subject to adaptation, the technique can be used in foreign practice. General recommendations for agricultural enterprises with a high probability of bankruptcy are: formation of an effective, effective strategy for making management decisions on the attraction, distribution and use of financial resources; creation of reserve funds for stocks of the most important resources and funds to cover possible expenses; increasing the competitiveness of products; diversification of risks of non-competitiveness of the enterprise; increasing turnover of current assets; optimization of the ratio of own and borrowed funds, etc.

The aim of the study is to methodical assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises taking into account the specifics of agricultural activity. We defined the term "bankruptcy" taking into account its economic and legal aspect; the effects of threats on the financial and economic condition of the enterprise and the probability of bankruptcy were investigated; studied and analyzed the most common methods of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in modern business conditions. To achieve this aim, the following research methods and techniques were used: abstract-logical method (when revealing the essence of the concept of Bankruptcy); dialectical approach (for theoretical generalization on problems identification and ways of solving these problems, for formulation of conclusions); method of expert assessments, comparative analysis approach, analysis and synthesis methods (in developing the concept of assessing the probability of bankruptcy); monographic technique (for in-depth study of individual types of factors influencing the likelihood of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular method (when presenting the results of the study). The author's definition of the term "bankruptcy" is offered. The classification of the principal branch factors influencing probability of bankruptcy of the enterprises of agrarian sphere of Ukraine is specified and schematized. It was proved that the discriminant analysis of the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy (construction of multifactor models that summarize the most important financial indicators in the integrated indicator) does not take into account the sectoral characteristics of agricultural enterprises. The concept of bankruptcy diagnostics was set forward, which combines discriminant analysis and expert assessment of qualitative signs of a possible crisis of an agricultural enterprise. The indicators selected for examination cover non-financial factors– risks and threats of agricultural production in Ukraine, and their generalization allows to clarify the risk of bankruptcy.

The development of global communications in business and everyday life has led to the emergence of a new plane of relationship, the subject of which is the electronic data exchange. In this exchange of data involved bodies of state power, local self-government, public administration, commercial and non-profit organizations, as well as citizens in their official and personal relationships. The problem of protecting electronic documents with the help of electronic-digital signature is extremely widespread in our time. As the era of the Internet and electronic technologies has come to an end, problems with the security of electronic document circulation, including those in public administration, are beginning to emerge. The issue of the preservation of electronic documents from copying and forging requires for its solution specific means and methods of protection. One of the means of such protection is a biometric digital signature, which undoubtedly confirms the authenticity of the information in the document, its details and the fact of signature by a particular person. The technology of electronic document circulation with the use of biometric digital signature in the public administration is not implemented today, which significantly reduces its quality and the development of electronic document circulation in general. The development is devoted to the possibilities of use and benefits of the introduction of electronic document circulation using the method of identity verification when signing electronic documents based on biometric identification tools.