Summary Group‐level obesity can be seen as an emergent property of a complex system, consisting of feedback loops between individual body weight perception, individual weight‐related behaviour and group‐level social norms (a product of group‐level ‘normal' body mass index (BMI) and sociocultural ‘ideal' BMI). As overweight becomes normal, the norm might be counteracting health awareness in shaping individual weight‐related behaviour. System dynamics modelling facilitates understanding and simulating this system's emergent behaviour. We constructed six system dynamics models (SDMs) based on an expert‐informed causal loop diagram and data from six sociocultural groups (Dutch, Moroccan and South‐Asian Surinamese men and women). The SDMs served to explore the effect of three scenarios on group‐level BMI: ‘what if' weight‐related behaviour were driven by (1) health awareness, (2) norms or (3) a combination of the two. Median BMI decreased approximately 50% and 30% less in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, than in 1. In men, the drop in BMI was approximately two times larger in scenario 1 versus 3, whereas in women, the drop was approximately equal in these scenarios. This study indicates that the overweight norm in men holds group‐level BMI close to overweight despite health awareness. Since norms are counteracting health awareness less strongly in women, other drivers of obesity must be more relevant.
Complexity science and systems thinking are increasingly recognized as relevant paradigms for studying systems where biology, psychology, and socioenvironmental factors interact. The application of systems thinking, however, often stops at developing a conceptual model that visualizes the mapping of causal links within a system, e.g., a causal loop diagram (CLD). While this is an important contribution in itself, it is imperative to subsequently formulate a computable version of a CLD in order to interpret the dynamics of the modeled system and simulate “what if” scenarios. We propose to realize this by deriving knowledge from experts’ mental models in biopsychosocial domains. This article first describes the steps required for capturing expert knowledge in a CLD such that it may result in a computational system dynamics model (SDM). For this purpose, we introduce several annotations to the CLD that facilitate this intended conversion. This annotated CLD (aCLD) includes sources of evidence, intermediary variables, functional forms of causal links, and the distinction between uncertain and known-to-be-absent causal links. We propose an algorithm for developing an aCLD that includes these annotations. We then describe how to formulate an SDM based on the aCLD. The described steps for this conversion help identify, quantify, and potentially reduce sources of uncertainty and obtain confidence in the results of the SDM’s simulations. We utilize a running example that illustrates each step of this conversion process. The systematic approach described in this article facilitates and advances the application of computational science methods to biopsychosocial systems.
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