Background COVID-19 has affected care home residents internationally, but detailed information on outbreaks is scarce. We aimed to describe the evolution of outbreaks of COVID-19 in all care homes in one large health region in Scotland. MethodsWe did a population analysis of testing, cases, and deaths in care homes in the National Health Service (NHS) Lothian health region of the UK. We obtained data for COVID-19 testing (PCR testing of nasopharyngeal swabs for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) and deaths (COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19related), and we analysed data by several variables including type of care home, number of beds, and locality. Outcome measures were timing of outbreaks, number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in care home residents, care home characteristics associated with the presence of an outbreak, and deaths of residents in both care homes and hospitals. We calculated excess deaths (both COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19-related), which we defined as the sum of deaths over and above the historical average in the same period over the past 5 years. FindingsBetween March 10 and Aug 2, 2020, residents at 189 care homes (5843 beds) were tested for COVID-19 when symptomatic. A COVID-19 outbreak was confirmed at 69 (37%) care homes, of which 66 (96%) were care homes for older people. The size of care homes for older people was strongly associated with a COVID-19 outbreak (odds ratio per 20-bed increase 3•35, 95% CI 1•99-5•63). 907 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were recorded during the study period, and 432 COVID-19-related deaths. 229 (25%) COVID-19-related cases and 99 (24%) COVID-related deaths occurred in five (3%) of 189 care homes, and 441 (49%) cases and 207 (50%) deaths were in 13 (7%) care homes. 411 (95%) COVID-19-related deaths occurred in the 69 care homes with a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak, 19 (4%) deaths were in hospital, and two (<1%) were in one of the 120 care homes without a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak. At the 69 care homes with a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak, 74 excess non-COVID-19related deaths were reported, whereas ten non-COVID-19-related excess deaths were observed in the 120 care homes without a confirmed COVID-19 outbreak. 32 fewer non-COVID-19-related deaths than expected were reported among care home residents in hospital.Interpretation The effect of COVID-19 on care homes has been substantial but concentrated in care homes with known outbreaks. A key implication from our findings is that, if community incidence of COVID-19 increases again, many care home residents will be susceptible. Shielding care home residents from potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and ensuring rapid action to minimise outbreak size if infection is introduced, will be important for any second wave.

Vaccine hesitancy is increasing and failure to vaccinate is well-recognised in Europe as a contributing factor to outbreaks of infectious diseases. In Lothian and Scotland, low vaccine uptake has been seen in migrants -notably in the Polish group who have arrived since 2004. The recent Vaccine Confidence in European Union report highlights a concerning recent decline in vaccine confidence in Poland.We held three focus groups containing 13 Polish women about the childhood vaccination programme in Lothian, with specific focus on influenza and Human Papillomavirus vaccinations. Key emergent themes were: trust in the national vaccination policy, trust in the vaccination providers (health professionals), trust in the individual vaccines, balancing the risk of disease, and language and communication.Polish norms, beliefs and behaviours shape how Polish migrants navigate the UK health system and its vaccination programme. While not confident in the Scottish primary care model and its generalist practitioners, the participants liked the ethos of informed consent in Scotland and compared this favourably with the compulsory vaccination policy in Poland. There was a belief that vaccines in Scotland were of higher quality than Poland and with fewer adverse effects.Respondents reported returning to Poland for specialist clinical appointments and diagnostic testing. They regularly access Polish clinical expertise and their opinions about health are influenced by Polish friends and family. They say they have difficulty finding official UK Government and health authority vaccination material and often access Polish media, online resources and information., They are familiar with antivaccination activities in Poland.Consequently, there are important unmet information needs for this group of parents who may not be making truly informed choices about vaccination. This requires further investigation especially as migration continues and declining immunisation uptake is reported in many countries across Europe.

In January to February 2014, 16 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases were identified in Edinburgh, United Kingdom. All presented with atypical features, with most (n=13) resembling eczema herpeticum or chickenpox. Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) was identified in all the typed cases (n=11). As atypical forms of HFMD associated with CV-A6 are likely to emerge throughout Europe, clinicians should be alert to unusual clinical presentations of HFMD and virologists aware of effective diagnostic testing and enterovirus typing methods.

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