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Climate warming is expected to shift bioclimatic zones and plant species distribution. Yet, few studies have explored whether seedling establishment is a possible bottleneck for future migration and population resilience. We test how warming affects the early stages of seedling establishment in 10 plant species in subarctic tundra. To zoom into the life phases where the effects of warming actually take place, we used a novel approach of breaking down the whole-season warming effect into full factorial combination of early-, mid-, and late-season warming periods. Seeds were sown in containers placed under field conditions in subarctic heath and were exposed to 3 1C elevation of surface temperature and 30% addition of summer precipitation relative to ambient. Heating was achieved with Free Air Temperature Increase systems. Whole-season heating reduced germination and establishment, significantly in four out of 10 species. The whole-season warming effect originated from additive effects of individual periods, although some of the periods had disproportionally stronger influence. Early-germinating species were susceptible to warming; the critical phases were early summer for germination and mid summer for seedling survival. Graminoids, which emerged later, were less susceptible although some negative effects during late summer were observed. Some species with intermediate germination time were affected by all periods of warming. Addition of water generally could not mitigate the negative effects of wholeseason heating, but at individual species level both strengthening and amelioration of these negative effects were observed. We conclude that summer warming is likely to constrain seedling recruitment in open micro sites, which is a common seed regeneration niche in tundra ecosystem. Importantly, we described both significant temporal and species-specific variation in the sensitivity of seedling establishment to warming which needs to be taken into consideration when modelling population dynamics and vegetation transitions in a warmer climate.

Arctic ecosystems are known to be extremely vulnerable to climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios project extreme climate events to increase in frequency and severity, we exposed High Arctic tundra plots during 8 days in summer to a temperature rise of approximately 9 1C, induced by infrared irradiation, followed by a recovery period. Increased plant growth rates during the heat wave, increased green cover at the end of the heat wave and higher chlorophyll concentrations of all four predominating species (Salix arctica Pall., Arctagrostis latifolia Griseb., Carex bigelowii Torr. ex Schwein and Polygonum viviparum L.) after the recovery period, indicated stimulation of vegetative growth. Improved plant performance during the heat wave was confirmed at plant level by higher leaf photochemical efficiency (F v /F m ) and at ecosystem level by increased gross canopy photosynthesis. However, in the aftermath of the temperature extreme, the heated plants were more stressed than the unheated plants, probably because they acclimated to warmer conditions and experienced the return to (low) ambient as stressful. We also calculated the impact of the heat wave on the carbon balance of this tundra ecosystem. Below-and aboveground respiration were stimulated by the instantaneous warmer soil and canopy, respectively, outweighing the increased gross photosynthesis. As a result, during the heat wave, the heated plots were a smaller sink compared with their unheated counterparts, whereas afterwards the balance was not affected. If other High Arctic tundra ecosystems react similarly, more frequent extreme temperature events in a future climate may shift this biome towards a source. It is uncertain, however, whether these short-term effects will hold when C exchange rates acclimate to higher average temperatures.

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