The growing recognition of the need to plan institutional responses to the effects of climate change makes it essential to develop research support strategies and tools not only at global but also at regional scales. This paper analyses the feasibility and potential of a risk assessment framework for studies of regional impact of and adaptation to climate change. We assess the potential impact of high temperature events on humans in southern Quebec. We integrate climate variables and socio-economic parameters via a geographic information system (GIS) tool to produce maps of estimated present and future public health risk. A comparison of risk maps for present and future conditions shows that the number of locations where population will be at threat due to high temperature events will dramatically increase in Quebec over the next few decades. KEY WORDS: Public health risk · High temperature events · Southern QuebecResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 30: 71-78, 2005 tional adaptation actions should be anticipatory and well-planned so as to minimize costs and optimize profitability (IPCC 2001a).Premature mortality and morbidity are the greatest social costs generated by heat waves in northern temperate countries. Deaths resulting from heat waves in several European, American and Japanese large cities have spurred growing research interest in prevention (Rooney et al. 1995, Semenza et al. 1996, Whitman et al. 1997, Besancenot 2002, Diaz et al. 2002, Curriero 2003, Vanhems et al. 2003, Cassadou et al. 2004, Hemon & Jougla 2004, Ledrans et al. 2004). High temperature events induce an increase in morbidity, i.e. a decline in health of people affected by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory disorders (McMichael et al. 1996, Haines & Patz 2004, Hemon & Jougla 2004, Knowlton et al. 2004, McMichael & Woodruff 2004. In Canada, climate projections show a significant warming for the future decades (IPCC 2001c). This is of special concern since in cooler regions people are less prepared for heat waves (Ballester et al. 1997, Curriero 2003. Consequently, there could be a significant increase in mortality, particularly among high risk groups such as elderly persons and urban dwellers with low income (IPCC 2001c, Diaz et al. 2002, Sheridan & Dolney 2003, Davis et al. 2004, Ledrans et al. 2004). The strongest correlation factors between impacts of high temperature events on mortality and morbidity and social factors include age (Besancenot 2002, Diaz et al. 2002, poverty (INSERM 2003), social isolation (Besancenot 2002) and education level (Ballester et al. 1997). These factors are often combined and sensitivity rises due to synergetic effects.We undertake a risk factor analysis for heat waves based on 2 components: climate hazard and social vulnerability. The methodology developed for this study was inspired by the NOAA (1999) vulnerability assessment tutorial, the EPA (1998) Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, Cutter & Scott (1997), Schiegg (2...

Trends and variations in daily temperature and precipitation indices in southern Québec

Anticipating the effects of climate change on biodiversity is now critical for managing wild species and ecosystems. Climate change is a global driver and thus affects biodiversity globally. However, land-use planners and natural resource managers need regional or even local predictions. This provides scientists with formidable challenges given the poor documentation of biodiversity and its complex relationships with climate. We are approaching this problem in Quebec, Canada, through the CC-Bio Project (http://cc‑bio.uqar.ca/), using a boundary organization as a catalyst for team work involving climate modelers, biologists, naturalists, and biodiversity managers. In this paper we present the CC-Bio Project and its general approach, some preliminary results, the emerging hypothesis of the northern biodiversity paradox (a potential increase of biodiversity in northern ecosystems due to climate change), and an early assessment of the conservation implications generated by our team work

Abstract. Little quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment. This study investigates and compares the varieties of different model response of three hydrological models (PROMET, Hydrotel, HSAMI), each representing a different model complexity in terms of process description, parameter space and spatial and temporal scale. The study is performed in the Ammer watershed, a 709 km 2 catchment in the Bavarian alpine forelands, Germany. All models are driven and validated by a 30-year time-series of observation data. It is expressed by objective functions, that all models, HSAMI and Hydrotel due to calibration, perform almost equally well for runoff simulation over the validation period. Some systematic deviances in the hydrographs and the spatial patterns of hydrologic variables are however quite distinct and thus further discussed.Virtual future climate (2071-2100) is generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (vers 3.7.1), driven by the Coupled Global Climate Model (vers. 2) based on an A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007). The hydrological model performance is evaluated by flow indicators, such as flood frequency, annual 7-day and 30-day low flow and maximum seasonal flows. The modified climatic boundary conditions cause dramatic deviances in hydrologic model response. HSAMI shows tremendous overestimation of evapotranspiration, while Hydrotel and PROMET behave in comparable range. Still, their significant differences, like spatially explicit patterns of summerly water shortage or spring flood intensity, highlight the necessity to extend and quantify Correspondence to: R. Ludwig (r.ludwig@lmu.de) the uncertainty discussion in climate change impact analysis towards the remarkable effect of hydrological model complexity. It is obvious that for specific application purposes, water resources managers need to be made aware of this effect and have to take its implications into account for decision making. The paper concludes with an outlook and a proposal for future research necessities.

Focusing on Ouranos' ongoing V&I&A projects in coastal regions, we describe the current knowledge-transfer environment. We also discuss how climate indices and indicators of vulnerability -which are developed by Ouranos following a 'pressure-state-response' (PSR) framework -form useful knowledge-transfer tools. Two specific case studies exemplify the development of (1) a set of temperature-trend indices for southern Québec and (2) climate-social indicators for the assessment of risks to public health due to extremely high temperature events. Case Study (1) illustrates how a systematic analysis of climate variability and relevant indices of extremes can be useful for decision makers at regional scales (southern Québec). Case Study (2) examines the potential, and feasibility, of using a risk-assessment framework for regional climate-change studies that focus on impacts and adaptation.