Abstract. The 2014 eruption at Piton de La Fournaise (PdF), la Reunion, which occurred after 41 months of quiescence, began with surprisingly little precursory activity, and was one of the smallest so far observed at PdF in terms of duration (less than 2 days) and volume (less than 0.4 Mm3). The pyroclastic material was composed of spiny-opaque, spiny-iridescent, and fluidal scoria along with golden pumice. Density analyses performed on 200 lapilli reveal that the spiny-opaque clasts are the densest (1600 kg/m3) and richest in crystals (54 vol%), and the golden pumices are the lightest (400 kg/m3) and poorest in crystals (14 vol%). The connectivity data indicate that the fluidal and golden (Hawaiian-like) clasts have more isolated vesicles (up to 40 %) than the spiny (Strombolian-like) clasts (0–5 %). These textural variations are linked to primary pre-eruptive magma storage conditions. The golden and fluidal fragments track the hotter portion of the melt, in contrast to the spiny fragments which mirror the cooler portion of the shallow reservoir. Progressive tapping of these distinct portions leads to a decrease in the explosive intensity from early fountaining to Strombolian activity. The geochemical results confirm the absence of new hot input of magma and confirm the involvement of a single, shallow, differentiated magma source, possibly related to residual magma from the November 2009 eruption. We found that the eruption was triggered by water exsolution, favoured by the shallow depth of the reservoir, rather than cooling and chemical evolution of the stored magma.

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

<p>The determination of Eruptive Source Parameters (ESPs) is crucial especially for very active volcanoes whose eruptive intensity can vary significantly. In this aim, new strategies are being developed to determine in near real time the total erupted mass (TEM), total grain-size distribution (TGSD) and plume height from ground sampling and remote sensing methods. Since 2011, Etna volcano has produced about 100 paroxysmal episodes characterized by the emission of fountain-fed tephra plumes whose heights reached up to 15 km (above sea level). In this work, we present multi-sensor strategies based on data acquired by the complementary set of remote sensing systems available at Etna. In fact, multi-sensor strategies may help to refine and assess the uncertainty of ESP estimates made by individual sensors, which can present various limitations such as narrow field of views (e.g., visible imagery) and/or low temporal resolution (e.g., satellite-based infrared). First, we show how the combination between tephra-fallout deposit and satellite-based estimates, along with numerical modelling, can help to refine estimates of TEM and TGSD, especially for weak explosive eruption such as the 29 August 2011 paroxysm. We use the model TEPHRA2 and compute synthetic data of ground accumulation to successfully fill significant sampling gaps in the tephra-fallout deposits. Moreover, we find that the Rosin-Rammler equation can be used to inform on missing part of the TGSD, including the tail of very fine ash also detected by satellite-based platforms. Additionally, we compare all estimates of Mass Eruption Rates, Plume height and grain-size distributions made by all available methods including Doppler radar detection, visible and infrared imagery, infrasound arrays, gravimetric signals and tephra-fallout deposit sampling. Accordingly, based on each sensor limitation and capacities, we obtain new constraints on ESP estimates acquired during several paroxysms between 2011-2013 and February 2021. We also bring new insights into the differences and complementarities that exist between the available remote sensing methods, especially in the case of future eruptive events at Mount Etna.</p>

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