A seismic sequence in central Italy from August 2016 to January 2017 affected groundwater dynamics in fractured carbonate aquifers. Changes in spring discharge, water-table position, and streamflow were recorded for several months following nine Mw 5.0-6.5 seismic events. Data from 22 measurement sites, located within 100 km of the epicentral zones, were analyzed. The intensity of the induced changes were correlated with seismic magnitude and distance to epicenters. The additional post-seismic discharge from rivers and springs was found to be higher than 9 m 3 /s, totaling more than 0.1 km 3 of groundwater release over 6 months. This huge and unexpected contribution increased streamflow in narrow mountainous valleys to previously unmeasured peak values. Analogously to the L'Aquila 2009 postearthquake phenomenon, these hydrogeological changes might reflect an increase of bulk hydraulic conductivity at the aquifer scale, which would increase hydraulic heads in the discharge zones and lower them in some recharge areas. The observed changes may also be partly due to other mechanisms, such as shaking and/or squeezing effects related to intense subsidence in the core of the affected area, where effects had maximum extent, or breaching of hydraulic barriers.

A sustained increase in spring discharges was monitored after the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence in the fractured carbonate aquifer of Valnerina-Sibillini Mts. The groundwater surplus recorded between August 2016 and November 2017 was determined to be between 400 and 500 × 10 6 m 3 . In fractured aquifers, the post-seismic rise in spring discharges is generally attributed to an increase in bulk permeability caused by the fracture cleaning effect, which is induced by pore pressure propagation. In the studied aquifers, the large amount of additional discharge cannot only be attributed to the enhanced permeability, which was evaluated to be less than 20% after each main seismic event. A detailed analysis of the spring discharge hydrographs and of the water level at five gauging stations was carried out to determine the possible causes of this sudden increase in groundwater outflow. Taking into account the geological and structural framework, a conceptual model of a basin-in-series has been adopted to describe the complex hydrogeological setting, where the thrusts and extensional faults have clearly influenced the groundwater flow directions before and after the seismic sequence. The prevalent portion of the total postseismic discharge surplus not explained by the increase in permeability has been attributed to changes in the hydraulic gradient that caused seismogenic fault rupture and the disruption in the upgradient sector of the aquifer. The additional flow calculated through the breach of the pre-existing hydrostructural barrier corresponds to approximately 470 × 10 6 m 3 . This value is consistent with the total discharge increase measured in the whole study area, validating the proposed conceptual model. Consequently, a shift in the piezometric divide of the hydrogeological system has been induced, causing a potentially permanent change that lowers the discharge amount of the eastern springs.

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The aim of the present map is to illustrate a detailed pre-earthquake hydrogeological conceptual model of the Sibillini Mts. This area was struck by a prolonged seismic sequence of up to Mw 6.5 in 2016. Geological, tectonic, and hydrogeological data were collected from the literature before 2016, subsequently standardized and re-interpretated with the aim of presenting a hydrogeological map (1:50,000 scale) of the Sibillini Mts. carbonate system (Central Italy). The map is supported by 11 hydrogeological both cross and longitudinal sections, which show the underground spatial relationship between aquifers, aquicludes, and tectonic elements. This Map provides a model of comparison for the new hydrogeological conditions emerging from the post-seismic research.