Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

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Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data and their appropriate use. We provide an overview of climate model outputs and issues that need to be considered when applying projections of future climate in ecological studies. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of available climate projections, the uncertainty associated with future projections at different spatial and temporal scales, the differences between available downscaling methods (dynamical, statistical downscaling, and simple scaling of global circulation model output), and the implications these have for ecological models. We describe some of the changes in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the new representative concentration pathways. We highlight some of the challenges in using model projections in ecological studies and suggest how to effectively address them. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:621–637. doi: 10.1002/wcc.291 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Future of Global Energy > Scenario Development and Application Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Modeling Species and Community Interactions

Aim Introduced predators are a global driver of species decline, but their impact on highly mobile species is poorly understood. We report the severe impact of a previously undocumented introduced predator on the endangered, migratory swift parrot (Lathamus discolor). Sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps), a supposedly benign introduced species, were detected acting as a major opportunistic predator of cavity-nesting birds. We assessed the intensity and geographical extent of sugar glider predation and investigated whether habitat loss exacerbated predation risk to swift parrots.Location Tasmania, Australia.Methods We monitored nests of swift parrots for 3 years with motion-activated cameras. We used bioclimatic modelling to predict the potential distribution of introduced sugar gliders across the study area and assessed the predation risk to swift parrots and other threatened birds in the region using nest-survival analysis.Results Daily survival of nests in areas where sugar gliders occurred was mean 0.97, which equated to a true likelihood of 0.17 for a nest to survive the 60-day nesting period. No nests failed on an offshore island where sugar gliders were shown to be absent. Most cases (83.3%) of glider predation resulted in the death of the adult female parrot. On the Tasmanian mainland, there was a positive relationship between nest survival and increasing mature forest cover at the landscape scale.Main conclusions Predation risk varied dramatically across the breeding range of swift parrots, depending on the presence of sugar gliders. Offshore islands are an important refuge for swift parrots because sugar gliders are absent. However, islands are vulnerable, and our bioclimatic model shows that they are bioclimatically suitable for sugar gliders. Synergistic interactions between predation and habitat loss combine with low breeding-site philopatry to expose swift parrots to dramatic variation in predation risk depending on nesting location.

Felton, A., Fischer, J., Lindenmayer, D. B., Montague-Drake, R., Lowe, A. R., Saunders, D., Felton, A. M., Steffen. W., Munro, N. T., Youngentob, K., Gillen, J., Gibbons, P., Bruzgul, J. E., Fazey, I., Bond, S. J., Elliott, C. P., Macdonald, B. C. T., Porfirio, L. L., Westgate, M., Worthy, M. (2009). Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature. Biodiversity and Conservation, 18, (8), 2243-2253. IMPF: 02.07 RONO: 00 Sponsorship: Australian Greenhouse OfficeRecent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions, ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change, similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective, we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions, ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research, with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues, ecosystems and species. Furthermore, we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change.Peer reviewe