[1] Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol production, so as to reduce solar insolation and cool Earth, has been suggested as an emergency response to geoengineer the planet in response to global warming. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano analog actually argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic and temperature responses. To further investigate the climate response, here we simulate the climate response to both tropical and Arctic stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We inject SO 2 and the model converts it to sulfate aerosols, transports the aerosols and removes them through dry and wet deposition, and calculates the climate response to the radiative forcing from the aerosols. We conduct simulations of future climate with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B business-as-usual scenario both with and without geoengineering and compare the results. We find that if there were a way to continuously inject SO 2 into the lower stratosphere, it would produce global cooling. Tropical SO 2 injection would produce sustained cooling over most of the world, with more cooling over continents. Arctic SO 2 injection would not just cool the Arctic. Both tropical and Arctic SO 2 injection would disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons, reducing precipitation to the food supply for billions of people. These regional climate anomalies are but one of many reasons that argue against the implementation of this kind of geoengineering.

Abstract. We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain intermodel differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

[1] Previous studies have used small numbers of ice core records of past volcanism to represent hemispheric or global radiative forcing from volcanic stratospheric aerosols. With the largest-ever assembly of volcanic ice core records and state-of-the-art climate model simulations of volcanic deposition, we now have a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of spatial variations on sulfate deposition and on estimates of atmospheric loading. We have combined 44 ice core records, 25 from the Arctic and 19 from Antarctica, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE simulations to study the spatial distribution of volcanic sulfate aerosols in the polar ice sheets. We extracted volcanic deposition signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to the time series and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31-year running median absolute deviation. Our results suggest that the distribution of volcanic sulfate aerosol follows the general precipitation pattern in both regions, indicating the important role precipitation has played in affecting the deposition pattern of volcanic aerosols. We found a similar distribution pattern for sulfate aerosols from the 1783-1784 Laki and 1815 Tambora eruptions, as well as for the total b activity after the 1952-1954 low-latitude Northern Hemisphere and 1961-1962 high-latitude Northern Hemisphere atmospheric nuclear weapon tests. This confirms the previous assumption that the transport and deposition of nuclear bomb test debris resemble those of volcanic aerosols. We compare three techniques for estimating stratospheric aerosol loading from ice core data: radioactive deposition from nuclear bomb tests, Pinatubo sulfate deposition in eight Antarctic ice cores, and climate model simulations of volcanic sulfate transport and deposition following the 1783 Laki, 1815 Tambora, 1912 Katmai, and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions. By applying the above calibration factors to the 44 ice core records, we have estimated the stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings for the largest volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. These loadings agree fairly well with estimates based on radiation, petrology, and model simulations. We also estimate the relative magnitude of sulfate deposition compared with the mean for Greenland and Antarctica for each ice core record, which provides a guideline to evaluate the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol loading calculated from a single or a few ice core records.

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO₂-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cl_y+60×Br_y) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role