Abstract:The quantitative impact assessment of microfinance programmes, like the programmes themselves, originated in Bangladesh. This essay reflects on the significance and usefulness for present day researchers of the analytical advances made in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 1990s. Particularly in the area of selection bias, fungibility and the assessment of wider impacts, it argues, those advances are crucial, and need to be borne in mind by all practitioners; but financial sustainability remains an unresolved problem.

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Seasonal hunger may result from seasonality of agriculture when households fail to smooth income and consumption. Using household survey data from the northwest region of Bangladesh, this paper examines alternative measures of seasonal hunger, and provides some evidence to support policies and programs needed to mitigate seasonal hunger. The results suggest that a large majority of food-vulnerable households are the perpetual poor, as opposed to a small percentage of households who are subject to food deprivation only during the lean period. Findings suggest that government safety net programs and microcredit provide a cushion for the poor to stave off seasonal hunger.

In northwest Bangladesh, some 36 per cent of poor households migrate every year during the lean (monga) period to cope with seasonal deprivation. Analysis of household survey data shows that the probability of seasonal migration is high for households with a high dependency ratio, high dependency on wage employment, and in villages with high unemployment; but low in villages with microcredit access. Findings show that seasonal migration helps households to smooth consumption and that non-migrant households who suffer during monga would likely benefit from deciding to migrate. But the cost of migration and lack of networking are potential barriers.