ObjectiveTo estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable causal factors.MethodsWe estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers associated with exposure to 13 causal factors using standard formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data. We also calculated the potential impact of changing exposure to some factors.ResultsA total of 32% of all cancers diagnosed in Australia in 2010 (excluding keratinocyte cancers) were attributable to the 13 factors assessed (men 33%; women 31%). Leading factors were tobacco smoke (PAF all cancers: 13.4%), solar radiation (6.2%), inadequate diet (6.1%) and overweight/obesity (3.4%). Factors conferring highest PAFs differed by sex: highest PAFs for men were tobacco smoke (15.8%), solar radiation (7.1%) and alcohol (3.0%); while highest PAFs for women were tobacco smoke (10.1%), solar radiation (5.0%) and overweight/obesity (4.5%). Sites with the highest counts of potentially preventable cancers were lung (8,569), colorectal (7,404), melanoma of the skin (7,220) and breast (3,233).ConclusionsAt least one in three cancers in Australia is attributable to exposure to known modifiable factors.ImplicationsUp to 37,000 cancers could be prevented in Australia each year if the population avoided exposure to 13 common factors known or strongly suspected to cause cancer.

Due to the growing knowledge about the role of specific fatty acids in health and disease, dietary intake measurements of individual fatty acids or classes of fatty acids are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the Nambour FFQ to estimate intakes of specific fatty acids, particularly PUFA. The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of b-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer (n 43). Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a weighed food record (WFR). Non-fasting blood samples were collected and analysed for plasma phospholipid fatty acids. Median intakes on the FFQ were generally higher than the WFR except for the n-3 PUFA groups, where the FFQ estimated higher intakes. Correlations between the FFQ and WFR were moderate (r 0·32 -0·59) except for trans fatty acids (r 0·03). Correlations between each of the dietary assessment methods and the plasma phospholipids were poor for all fatty acids other than the PUFA. Using the methods of triads approach, the FFQ validity coefficients for total n-3 fatty acids, total long chain n-3 fatty acids, EPA, arachidonic acid, docosapentaenoic acid and DHA were 0·50, 0·63, 0·45 and 0·62 and 0·62, respectively. For most fatty acids, the FFQ adequately estimates group mean fatty acid intakes and can adequately rank individuals; however, the ability of this FFQ to estimate trans fatty acids was poor.

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Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future risks of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression models. In secondary analyses, we derived separate models within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex. The primary model included terms for 10 items. Factors with the strongest effects were >20 prior skin cancers excised (odds ratio 8.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 6.73-10.91), >50 skin lesions destroyed (odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 2.85-3.99), age ≥ 70 years (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 2.53-4.77), and fair skin color (odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.42-2.15). Discrimination in the validation dataset was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% CI 0.79-0.81) and the model appeared well calibrated. Among those reporting no prior history of skin cancer, a similar model with 10 factors predicted keratinocyte carcinoma events with reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). Algorithms using self-reported patient data have high accuracy for predicting risks of keratinocyte carcinomas.

ObjectivesTo estimate the number and proportion of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to consumption deficits in fruit, non-starchy vegetables and dietary fibre.MethodsWe estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) for cancers causally associated with inadequate intake of fruit and non-starchy vegetables (oral cavity, pharynx, oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, stomach, larynx); inadequate intake of fruit (lung); and insufficient intake of fibre (colorectum). We used standard formulae incorporating prevalence of exposure (1995 National Nutrition Survey) and relative risks from independent studies.ResultsOverall, 1,555 (1.4% of all) and 311 (0.3% of all) cancers were attributable to inadequate intakes of fruit and non-starchy vegetables, respectively. A further 2,609 colorectal cancers (18% of colorectal) were attributable to insufficient fibre intake. If Australians increased their fibre intake by eating the recommended daily intakes of fruit and vegetables, an estimated 1,293 (8.8%) colorectal cancers could be prevented.ConclusionsOne in six colorectal cancer cases was attributable to inadequate intake of dietary fibre and about 1,800 cancers at other sites were attributable to insufficient fruit and non-starchy vegetable consumption.ImplicationsIncreasing the proportion of Australians who consume the recommended intake of fruit, vegetables and fibre could prevent up to 4% of all cancers.