To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.

[1] We present an almost 3 year long time series of shell fluxes and oxygen isotopes of left-coiling Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Turborotalita quinqueloba from sediment traps moored in the deep central Irminger Sea. We determined their response to the seasonal change from a deeply mixed water column with occasional deep convection in winter to a thermally stratified water column with a surface mixed layer (SML) of around 50 m in summer. Both species display very low fluxes during winter with a remnant summer population holding out until replaced by a vital population that seeds the subsequent blooms. This annual population overturning is marked by a 0.7‰ increase in d 18 O in both species. The shell flux of N. pachyderma peaks during the spring bloom and in late summer, when stratification is close to its minimum and maximum, respectively. Both export periods contribute about equally and account for >95% of the total annual flux. Shell fluxes of T. quinqueloba show only a single broad pulse in summer, thus following the seasonal stratification cycle. The d 18 O of N. pachyderma reflects temperatures just below the base of the seasonal SML without offset from isotopic equilibrium. The d 18 O pattern of T. quinqueloba shows a nearly identical amplitude and correlates highly with the d 18 O of N. pachyderma. Therefore T. quinqueloba also reflects temperature near the base of the SML but with a positive offset from isotopic equilibrium. These offsets contrast with observations elsewhere and suggest a variable offset from equilibrium calcification for both species. In the Irminger Sea the species consistently show a contrast in their flux timings. Their flux-weighted Dd 18 O will thus dominantly be determined by seasonal temperature differences at the base of the SML rather than by differences in their depth habitat. Consequently, their sedimentary Dd 18 O may be used to infer the seasonal contrast in temperature at the base of the SML.

Deep convection is presumed to be vital for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, even though observational evidence for the link remains inconclusive. Modeling studies have suggested that convection will weaken as a result of enhanced freshwater input. The emergence of anomalously low sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic has led to speculation that this process is already at work. Here we show that strong atmospheric forcing in the winter of 2014–2015, associated with a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, produced record mixed layer depths in the Irminger Sea. Local mixing removed the stratification of the upper 1400 m and ventilated the basin to middepths resembling a state similar to the mid‐1990s when a positive NAO also prevailed. We show that the strong local atmospheric forcing is predominantly responsible for the negative sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the subpolar North Atlantic in 2015 and that there is no evidence of permanently weakened deep convection.