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Aim. To create a calculator for the annual personalised risk assessment of adverse cardiovascular events in patients after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Materials and Methods. Here we performed a prospective data analysis of 1,000 patients diagnosed with STEMI during 2017 and 2018 and admitted to Regional Vascular Center. For evaluating the risk of adverse cardiovascular events after STEMI, we applied the GRACE scale. After 1 year of follow-up, the predicted outcomes were compared with the actual outcomes. We then created a personalised calculator of unfavorable outcome by using logistic regression.Results. The calculator included six indicators that significantly correlated with outcomes and poorly correlated with each other: left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40%, anterior STEMI, tachycardia upon admission, fasting blood glucose, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), and patient age.Conclusion. We found a high reliability of our calculator for the annual personalised prognosis of adverse outcome in patients after STEMI.

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Aim. To identify the factors of long-term adverse prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome as a result of five-year follow-up. Material and methods. The study included 280 patients with ACS hospitalized in the 1st cardiology Department of the Novosibirsk municipal CLINICAL hospital № 1 in 2010-2011. The study cohort included 145 patients with ACS (107 men and 38 women), 135 patients with ACS (93 men and 43 women). The average age of men was 56,3±5,2, women 52, 1±5,3 years. The criteria of the European society of cardiology (2015, 2017) were used for the diagnosis of ACS. For five years, all patients included in the study were contacted through communication and annual medical examinations, to which patients were invited to the clinic. The examinations included the following clinical and instrumental examinations: clinical examination, electrocardiography, Holter monitoring of electrocardiogram, echocardiography, lipid profile, inflammatory cytokines and molecular genetic parameters. In the study, a mathematical model for predicting five-year outcomes Oxpt and Oxbt. Results. Five-year observation allowed using the constructed mathematical model to determine not only the place of each factor in the cardiovascular prognosis, but also to assess how the role of these prognostic markers changes over time. Conclusion. The use of a mathematical model for predicting long-term adverse outcomes of ACS allows to assess the value of specific risk factors and predictors,