The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts. The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43‐year capture–mark–recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallards Anas platyrhynchos released in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters. We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models. Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa.

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) nesting in colonies on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner's sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre‐ and postfledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long‐term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed‐effects models to examine long‐term (1987–2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased ( β = 0.05, 95% CRI: 0.032–0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased ( β = −0.024, 95% CRI: −0.041 to −0.007), potentially in response to long‐term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially ( β = −0.100, 95% CRI: −0.191 to −0.016) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long‐term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea ( β = −0.191, 95% CRI: −0.355 to −0.032). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long‐term declines in forage availability.

Maintenance of phenotypic heterogeneity in the face of strong selection is an important component of evolutionary ecology, as are the consequences of such heterogeneity. Organisms may experience diminishing returns of increased reproductive allocation as clutch or litter size increases, affecting current and residual reproductive success. Given existing uncertainty regarding trade‐offs between the quantity and quality of offspring, we sought to examine the potential for diminishing returns on increased reproductive allocation in a long‐lived species of goose, with a particular emphasis on the effect of position in the laying sequence on offspring quality. To better understand the effects of maternal allocation on offspring survival and growth, we estimated the effects of egg size, timing of breeding, inter‐ and intra‐annual variation, and position in the laying sequence on gosling survival and growth rates of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans breeding in western Alaska from 1987 to 2007. We found that gosling growth rates and survival decreased with position in the laying sequence, regardless of clutch size. Mean egg volume of the clutch a gosling originated from had a positive effect on gosling survival ( β = 0.095, 95% CRI: 0.024, 0.165) and gosling growth rates ( β = 0.626, 95% CRI: 0.469, 0.738). Gosling survival ( β = −0.146, 95% CRI: −0.214, −0.079) and growth rates ( β = −1.286, 95% CRI: −1.435, −1.132) were negatively related to hatching date. These findings indicate substantial heterogeneity in offspring quality associated with their position in the laying sequence. They also potentially suggest a trade‐off mechanism for females whose total reproductive investment is governed by pre‐breeding state.