Tidewater glaciers calve icebergs into the marine environment which serve as pupping, molting, and resting habitat for some of the largest seasonal aggregations of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) in the world. Although they are naturally dynamic, advancing and retreating in response to local climatic and fjord conditions, most tidewater glaciers around the world are thinning and retreating. Climate change models predict continued loss of land-based ice with unknown impacts to organisms such as harbor seals that rely on glacier ice as habitat for critical life history events. To understand the impacts of changing ice availability on harbor seals, we quantified seasonal and annual changes in ice habitat in Johns Hopkins Inlet, a tidewater glacier fjord in Glacier Bay National Park in southeastern Alaska. We conducted systematic aerial photographic surveys (n = 55) of seals and ice during the pupping (June; n = 30) and molting (August; n = 25) periods from 2007 to 2014. Object-based image analysis was used to quantify the availability and spatial distribution of floating ice in the fjord. Multivariate spatial models were developed for jointly modeling stage-structured seal location data and ice habitat. Across all years, there was consistently more ice in the fjord during the pupping season in June than during the molting season in August, which was likely driven by seasonal variation in physical processes that influence the calving dynamics of tidewater glaciers. Non-pup harbor seals and ice were correlated during the pupping season, but this correlation was reduced during the molting season suggesting that harbor seals may respond to changes in habitat differently depending upon trade-offs associated with life history events, such as pupping and molting, and energetic costs and constraints associated with the events.

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) nesting in colonies on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner's sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre‐ and postfledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long‐term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed‐effects models to examine long‐term (1987–2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased ( β = 0.05, 95% CRI: 0.032–0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased ( β = −0.024, 95% CRI: −0.041 to −0.007), potentially in response to long‐term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially ( β = −0.100, 95% CRI: −0.191 to −0.016) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long‐term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea ( β = −0.191, 95% CRI: −0.355 to −0.032). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long‐term declines in forage availability.

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