INTRODUCTION The influence of El Niño on climate is accompanied by large changes to the carbon cycle, and El Niño–induced variability in the carbon cycle has been attributed mainly to the tropical continents. However, owing to a dearth of observations in the tropics, tropical carbon fluxes are poorly quantified, and considerable debate exists over the dominant mechanisms (e.g., plant growth, respiration, fire) and regions (e.g., humid versus semiarid tropics) on the net carbon balance. RATIONALE The launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) shortly before the 2015–2016 El Niño, the second strongest since the 1950s, has provided an opportunity to understand how tropical land carbon fluxes respond to the warm and dry climate characteristics of El Niño conditions. The El Niño events may also provide a natural experiment to study the response of tropical land carbon fluxes to future climate changes, because anomalously warm and dry tropical environments typical of El Niño are expected to be more frequent under most emission scenarios. RESULTS The tropical regions of three continents (South America, Asia, and Africa) had heterogeneous responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño, in terms of both climate drivers and the carbon cycle. The annual mean precipitation over tropical South America and tropical Asia was lower by 3.0σ and 2.8σ, respectively, in 2015 relative to the 2011 La Niña year. Tropical Africa, on the other hand, had near equal precipitation and the same number of dry months between 2015 and 2011; however, surface temperatures were higher by 1.6σ, dominated by the positive anomaly over its eastern and southern regions. In response to the warmer and drier climate anomaly in 2015, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere than in 2011, which accounts for 83.3% of the global total 3.0–gigatons of carbon (gigatons C) net biosphere flux differences and 92.6% of the atmospheric CO 2 growth-rate differences between 2015 and 2011. It indicates that the tropical land biosphere flux anomaly was the driver of the highest atmospheric CO 2 growth rate in 2015. The three tropical continents had an approximately even contribution to the pantropical net carbon flux anomaly in 2015, but had diverse dominant processes: gross primary production (GPP) reduced carbon uptake (0.9 ± 0.96 gigatons C) in tropical South America, fire increased carbon release (0.4 ± 0.08 gigatons C) in tropical Asia, and respiration increased carbon release (0.6 ± 1.01 gigatons C) in Africa. We found that most of the excess carbon release in 2015 was associated with either extremely low precipitation or high temperatures, or both. CONCLUSION Our results indicate that the global El Niño effect is a superposition of regionally specific effects. The heterogeneous climate forcing and carbon response over the three tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability, which could also be due to previous disturbance and soil and vegetation structure. The similarity between the 2015 tropical climate anomaly and the projected climate changes imply that the role of the tropical land as a buffer for fossil fuel emissions may be reduced in the future. The heterogeneous response may reflect differences in temperature and rainfall anomalies, but intrinsic differences in vegetation species, soils, and prior disturbance may contribute as well. A synergistic use of multiple satellite observations and a long time series of spatially resolved fluxes derived from sustained satellite observations will enable tests of these hypotheses, allow for a more process-based understanding, and, ultimately, aid improved carbon-climate model projections. Diverse climate driver anomalies and carbon cycle responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño over the three tropical continents. Schematic of climate anomaly patterns over the three tropical continents and the anomalies of the net carbon flux and its dominant constituent flux (i.e., GPP, respiration, and fire) relative to the 2011 La Niña during the 2015–2016 El Niño. GtC, gigatons C.

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Sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from the Aquarius/SAC‐D satellite during September–December 2011 provide the first satellite observations of the salinity structure of tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Pacific. The related SSS anomaly has a magnitude of approximately ±0.5 PSU. Different from sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) where TIW‐related propagating signals are stronger a few degrees away from the equator, the SSS signature of TIWs is largest near the equator in the eastern equatorial Pacific where salty South Pacific water meets the fresher Inter‐tropical Convergence Zone water. The dominant westward propagation speed of SSS near the equator is approximately 1 m/s. This is twice as fast as the 0.5 m/s TIW speed widely reported in the literature, typically from SST and SSHA away from the equator. This difference is attributed to the more dominant 17‐day TIWs near the equator that have a 1 m/s dominant phase speed and the stronger 33‐day TIWs away from the equator that have a 0.5 m/s dominant phase speed. The results demonstrate the important value of Aquarius in studying TIWs.

Spaceborne observations of carbon dioxide (CO) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 are used to characterize the response of tropical atmospheric CO concentrations to the strong El Niño event of 2015-2016. Although correlations between the growth rate of atmospheric CO concentrations and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are well known, the magnitude of the correlation and the timing of the responses of oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle remain poorly constrained in space and time. We used space-based CO observations to confirm that the tropical Pacific Ocean does play an early and important role in modulating the changes in atmospheric CO concentrations during El Niño events-a phenomenon inferred but not previously observed because of insufficient high-density, broad-scale CO observations over the tropics.

The Bay of Bengal receives large amounts of freshwater from the Ganga‐Brahmaputra (GB) river during the summer monsoon. The resulting upper‐ocean freshening influences seasonal rainfall, cyclones, and biological productivity. Sparse in situ observations and previous modeling studies suggest that the East India Coastal Current (EICC) transports these freshwaters southward after the monsoon as an approximately 200 km wide, 2,000 km long “river in the sea” along the East Indian coast. Sea surface salinity (SSS) from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite provides unprecedented views of this peculiar feature from intraseasonal to interannual timescales. SMAP SSS has a 0.83 correlation and 0.49 rms‐difference to 0–5 m in situ measurements. SMAP and in stu data both indicate a SSS standard deviation of ∼0.7 to 1 away from the coast, that rises to 2 pss within 100 km of the coast, providing a very favorable signal‐to‐noise ratio in coastal areas. SMAP also captures the strong northern BoB, postmonsoon cross‐shore SSS contrasts (∼10 pss) measured along ship transects. SMAP data are also consistent with previous modeling results that suggested a modulation of the EICC/GB plume southward extent by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Remote forcing associated with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole in the fall of 2016 indeed caused a stronger EICC and “river in the sea” that extended by approximately 800 km further south than that in 2015 (positive IOD year). The combination of SMAP and altimeter data shows eddies stirring the freshwater plume away from the coast.