Considering the important role of tourism in the socio-economic development of regions, the need for information and modeling of ways to increase demand for tourism services and tourism development is being updated. The article uses methods of analytical, logical, comparative analysis and systematic approach to study trends in demand for tourist services in Ukraine. Econometric modeling analyzes the demand for tourism services by the level of income and expenditures of the population in 2018. Trends in demand for tourism services in 2018 in terms of income and expenditure of the population with the use of the Tornquist econometric model have been analyzed. It is proposed to use the decile groups of the population for analyzing income and expenditure by the level of income, total income per capita, the level of household expenditure relative to income, the percentage of tourism expenditure by households, the expenditure on tourism and the elasticity of tourism demand. Average values of the population’s expenditures on tourism were established, which helped to determine the elasticity of effective demand for each decile group. The more than one unit of elasticity of effective tourism demand for each decile group indicated that tourism services for domestic households belong to the group of luxury goods and services. It should be noted that in the following decile income groups of households there is a decrease in elasticity. It means that when income tends to increase indefinitely, elasticity coefficients fall, and this indicates a stabilization of costs of this type. In this case, the percentage of households in each decile group that recorded the costs of organized tourism in their budgets and the value of the probability of household participation in this form of recreation was determined based on an estimated probability model. An analysis of the values of income elasticity indicators in each income decile group has shown that increasing household incomes contribute to increased demand for tourism services and an increase in the share of expenditures for these purposes in household budgets.

UDC 338.487 JEL Classification: L83 Blahun I. S., Leshchukh H. V., Kyfor M. V. A Forecast Model for Assessing Tourist Flows with Regard to the Additive Seasonality Factor Using the Example of Ivano-Frankivsk RegionThe aim of the article is to study and analyze trends in the development of the tourism sector with the application of econometric modeling and forecasting methods, using the example of the Ivano-Frankivsk region. The paper analyzes the current trends in tourist flows using the example of Ivano-Frankivsk region in the following areas: total number of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents; number of domestic, outbound and inbound (foreign) tourists. Based on exponential models, which are relatively easy to implement, forecasts accounting for the choice of the final form of the models with the use of the criteria of the minimum mean square error or damped forecast are built. By means of a linear trend model with additive seasonality, additive seasonality indicators are calculated for the variable which reflects УДК 338.487 JEL Classification: L83 Благун И. С., Лещук Г. В., Кифор М. В. Прогностическая модель оценки туристических потоков с учетом фактора аддитивной сезонности на примере Ивано-Франковской области Целью статьи являются исследование и анализ тенденций развития туристической сферы с использованием эконометрического моделирования и методов прогнозирования на примере Ивано-Франковской области. В работе проанализированы современные тенденции туристических потоков на примере Ивано-Франковской области по таким направлениям: общее количество туристов, обслуженных туроператорами и турагентами; количество внутренних, выездных и въездных (иностранных) туристов. На основе экспоненциальных моделей, которые сравнительно легко применять на практике, построены прогнозы с учетом выбора конечной формы моделей на основе критерия малейшего среднего или потухшего прогноза. С помощью ли-удк 338.487 JEL Classification: L83 прогносТична модель оцінки ТурисТичних поТоків з урахуванням факТора адиТивної сезонносТі на прикладі івано-франківської обласТі  2019 БлагуН І. С., лещук г. в., кифор М. в. УДК 338.487 JEL Classification: L83 Благун І. С., Лещук Г. В., Кифор М. В. Прогностична модель оцінки туристичних потоків з урахуванням фактора адитивної сезонності на прикладі Івано-Франківської області Метою статті є дослідження та аналіз тенденцій розвитку туристичної сфери з використанням економетричного моделювання та методів прогнозування на прикладі Івано-Франківської області. У роботі проаналізовано сучасні тенденції туристичних потоків на прикладі Івано-Франківської області за такими напрямками: загальна кількість туристів, обслугованих туроператорами та турагентами; кількість внутрішніх, виїзних і в'їзних (іноземних) туристів. На основі експоненціальних згладжувальних моделей, які порівняно легко застосовувати на практиці, побудовані прогнози з урахуванням вибору кінцевої форми моделей на основі критерію найменшого середнього або згаслого прогнозу. За допомогою лінійної моделі тренду з адитивною сезон...

UDC 379.851 JEL: С10; L83; R22 Kyfor M. V. Analyzing the Seasonality and Variability of Tourist Flows on the Example of the Western Regions of Ukraine The article is aimed at studying the evaluation of the irregular distribution of tourist flow and its variability during a year, as well as the division of territories within the country with different seasonality. In the analysis of seasonality in the tourism sector, it is proposed to calculate the index of seasonality of the number of tourists from summer to winter and from autumn to spring, which, respectively, allows to determine the coefficient of variation during the year. It is substantiated that the irregular tourist route is well visible in some regions, where the number of tourists in summer is 3-4 times higher than in winter, and the number of overnight stays is even 5-7 times higher. It is determined that in 2016-2018 in most regions was observed a negative, significant or statistically very significant tendency in the seasonality index of the number of tourists. Taking into account the values of seasonality indices for the number of both domestic and foreign tourists; number of days spent overnight, as well as the variation in the number of tourists per year, in the western regions of Ukraine are allocated four zones with different seasonality of tourist flow: very high (Carpathian zone); high (mountain zone), low (Zakarpattia); middle (Prykarpattia). It is concluded