Nendel 38 | Jørgen Eivind Olesen 37 | Taru Palosuo 44 | John R. Porter 42,45,46 | Eckart Priesack 39 | Dominique Ripoche 47 | Mikhail A. Semenov 48 | Claudio Stöckle 17 | Pierre Stratonovitch 48 | Thilo Streck 33 | Iwan Supit 49 | Fulu Tao 50,44 | Marijn Van der Velde 51 | Daniel Wallach 52 | Enli Wang 53 | Heidi Webber 30,38 AbstractWheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable 156 |

The number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concerns. Here, we systematize published footprint studies and define a family of footprints that can be used for the assessment of environmental sustainability. We identify overlaps between different footprints and analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries and visualize the crucial information they provide for local and planetary sustainability. In addition, we assess how the footprint family delivers on measuring progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), considering its ability to quantify environmental pressures along the supply chain and relating them to the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and ecosystem services. We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework where particular members can be included or excluded according to the context or area of concern. Our paper is based upon a recent workshop bringing together global leading experts on existing environmental footprint indicators.

There is much interest in using volunteered geographic information (VGI) in formal scientific analyses. This analysis uses VGI describing land cover that was captured using a web-based interface, linked to Google Earth. A number of control points, for which the land cover had been determined by experts allowed measures of the reliability of each volunteer in relation to each land cover class to be calculated. Geographically weighted kernels were used to estimate surfaces of volunteered land cover information accuracy and then to develop spatially distributed correspondences between the volunteer land cover class and land cover from 3 contemporary global datasets (GLC-2000, GlobCover and MODIS v.5). Specifically, a geographically weighted approach calculated local confusion matrices (correspondences) at each location in a central African study area and generated spatial distributions of user's, producer's, portmanteau, and partial portmanteau accuracies. These were used to evaluate the global datasets and to infer which of them was 'best' at describing Tree cover at each location in the study area. The resulting maps show where specific global datasets are recommended for analyses requiring Tree cover information. The methods presented in this research suggest that some of the concerns about the quality of VGI can be addressed through careful data collection, the use of control points to evaluate volunteer performance and spatially explicit analyses. A research agenda for the use and analysis of VGI about land cover is outlined.

Crowdsourcing is a popular means of acquiring data, but the use of such data is limited by concerns with its quality. This is evident within cartography and geographical sciences more generally, with the quality of volunteered geographic information (VGI) recognized as a major challenge to address if the full potential of citizen sensing in mapping applications is to be realized. Here, a means to characterize the quality of volunteers, based only on the data they contribute, was used to explore issues connected with the quantity and quality of volunteers for attribute mapping. The focus was on data in the form of annotations or class labels provided by volunteers who visually interpreted an attribute, land cover, from a series of satellite sensor images. A latent class model was found to be able to provide accurate characterizations of the quality of volunteers in terms of the accuracy of their labelling, irrespective of the number of cases that they labelled. The accuracy with which a volunteer could be characterized tended to increase with the number of volunteers contributing but was typically good at all but small numbers of volunteers. Moreover, the ability to characterize volunteers in terms of the quality of their labelling could be used constructively. For example, volunteers could be ranked in terms of quality which could then be used to select a sub-set as input to a subsequent mapping task. This was particularly important as an identified subset of volunteers could undertake a task more accurately than when part of a larger group of volunteers. The results highlight that both the quantity and quality of volunteers need consideration and that the use of VGI may be enhanced through information on the quality of the volunteers derived entirely from the data provided without any additional information.

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.