The simulated outcome of a calibrated hydrologic model should be hydrologically consistent with the measured response data. Hydrologic modelers typically calibrate models to optimize residualbased goodness-of-fit measures, e.g., the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure, and then evaluate the obtained results with respect to hydrological signatures, e.g., the flow duration curve indices. The literature indicates that the consideration of a large number of hydrologic signatures has not been addressed in a full multiobjective optimization context. This research develops a model calibration methodology to achieve hydrological consistency using goodness-of-fit measures, many hydrological signatures, as well as a level of acceptability for each signature. The proposed framework relies on a scoring method that transforms any hydrological signature to a calibration objective. These scores are used to develop the hydrological consistency metric, which is maximized to obtain hydrologically consistent parameter sets during calibration. This consistency metric is implemented in different signature-based calibration formulations that adapt the sampling according to hydrologic signature values. These formulations are compared with the traditional formulations found in the literature for seven case studies. The results reveal that Pareto dominance-based multiobjective optimization yields the highest level of consistency among all formulations. Furthermore, it is found that the choice of optimization algorithms does not affect the findings of this research.
Abstract.A multi-objective genetic algorithm, NSGA-II, is applied to calibrate a distributed hydrological model (WetSpa) for prediction of river discharges. The goals of this study include (i) analysis of the applicability of multiobjective approach for WetSpa calibration instead of the traditional approach, i.e. the Parameter ESTimator software (PEST), and (ii) identifiability assessment of model parameters. The objective functions considered are model efficiency (Nash-Sutcliffe criterion) known to be biased for high flows, and model efficiency for logarithmic transformed discharges to emphasize low-flow values. For the multi-objective approach, Pareto-optimal parameter sets are derived, whereas for the single-objective formulation, PEST is applied to give optimal parameter sets. The two approaches are evaluated by applying the WetSpa model to predict daily discharges in the Hornad River (Slovakia) for a 10 year period (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000). The results reveal that NSGA-II performs favourably well to locate Pareto optimal solutions in the parameters search space. Furthermore, identifiability analysis of the WetSpa model parameters shows that most parameters are well-identifiable. However, in order to perform an appropriate model evaluation, more efforts should be focused on improving calibration concepts and to define robust methods to quantify different sources of uncertainties involved in the calibration procedure.
We present an improved version of Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO) algorithm to develop operating rules for multi-reservoir systems. The performance of the proposed model is tested through sensitivity analysis and comparing the result with those of a real-coded Genetic Algorithm (GA) for a 60-month period single-reservoir operation problem. The improved model is subsequently employed to derive release rule and storage balancing functions which form operating policy for a multi-reservoir system along two case examples: (i) water supply and (ii) hydropower generation. The obtained operating rule curves can be used to guide the system operators in decision-making. These rule curves provide the operator with the opportunity to systematically look at the system and to make proper decisions. The obtained results showed that the optimization technique proposed in this study is capable of solving complex multi-reservoir systems operation problems. Moreover, the proposed structure properly handled the tight constraints defining the parallel reservoirs operation in such a way that all the generated solutions were feasible after a particular set of iterations. The proposed optimization algorithm of this study can be developed more in future to solve multi-modal optimization problems, and also to define operation policies for highly complex multi-reservoir systems.
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