International audienceThis work focuses on the development of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool FLAME (Forecasting Landslides Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events) associates (1) a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacement) and (2) a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. viscoplastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressure. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France). The performance of different combinations of models (IR model alone, MA model alone and a combination of the IR and MA models) is evaluated against observed changes in pore water pressures and displacement rates at the study site. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); conversely, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced. The approach constitutes however a robust tool to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series

International audienceThe severity of the impact of a natural hazard on a society depends on, among other factors, the intensity of the hazard and the exposure and resistance ability of the elements at risk (e.g., persons, buildings and infrastructures). Social conditions strongly influence the vulnerability factors for both direct and indirect impact and therefore control the possibility to transform the occurrence of a natural hazard into a natural disaster. This article presents a model to assess the relative socioeconomic vulnerability to landslides at the local to regional scale. The model applies an indicator-based approach. The indicators represent the underlying factors that influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage and loss associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators that characterize the demographic, social and economic setting as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness, effectiveness of the response and capacity to recover. Although this model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include physical indicators accounting for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The final vulnerability estimate is formulated as a weighted average of the individual indicator scores. The proposed model is applied for six case studies in Europe. The case studies demonstrate that the method gives a reasonable ranking of the vulnerability. The practical experience achieved through the case studies shows that the model is straightforward for users with knowledge on landslide locations and with access to local census data

Abstract. Forecasting the possibility of flow-type failures within a slow-moving landslide mass is rarely taken into account in quantitative hazard assessments. Therefore, this paper focuses on the potential transition of sliding blocks (slumps) into flow-like processes due to the generation of excess pore water pressure in undrained conditions. The generation of excess pore water pressure may be the consequence of deformation of the landslide body during motion. Two model concepts are proposed and discussed. The first concept is the so called strain concept model where emphasis is laid on strain changes due to differential movement within the moving mass. This may create zones of compression and dilation and consequently excess pore water pressures. The second concept is the so called topographical concept model which focuses on changes in the stress field of the landslide caused by geometric changes in topography of the moving body. Both models were tested on two slumps which developed in secondary scarps of the Super-Sauze mudslide in the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps). The slump which developed in 1999 showed complete fluidization; all the material was removed from the source area and transformed into a mudflow. The second slump, dated from 2006, did not show fluidization; it has a relative short displacement and all the material remained in the source area. It appeared that the strain concept model predicted flow-type failure for both slumps, after relative short displacements, while the topographical concept model predicted only flow-type failure for the 1999 slump and not for the 2006 slump. The strain concept model seems too conservative in forecasting the fluidization potential of slumping blocks.Correspondence to: J.-P. Malet