For more than 50 y ecologists have believed that spatial heterogeneity in habitat conditions promotes species richness by increasing opportunities for niche partitioning. However, a recent stochastic model combining the main elements of niche theory and island biogeography theory suggests that environmental heterogeneity has a general unimodal rather than a positive effect on species richness. This result was explained by an inherent tradeoff between environmental heterogeneity and the amount of suitable area available for individual species: for a given area, as heterogeneity increases, the amount of effective area available for individual species decreases, thereby reducing population sizes and increasing the likelihood of stochastic extinctions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of this hypothesis. First we analyze an extensive database of breeding bird distribution in Catalonia and show that patterns of species richness, species abundance, and extinction rates are consistent with the predictions of the area-heterogeneity tradeoff and its proposed mechanisms. We then perform a metaanalysis of heterogeneity-diversity relationships in 54 published datasets and show that empirical data better fit the unimodal pattern predicted by the area-heterogeneity tradeoff than the positive pattern predicted by classic niche theory. Simulations in which species may have variable niche widths along a continuous environmental gradient are consistent with all empirical findings. The area-heterogeneity tradeoff brings a unique perspective to current theories of species diversity and has important implications for biodiversity conservation.habitat heterogeneity | neutral theory | stochastic model of community dynamics | conservation planning

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.

It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change.

Many factors affect the distribution of species richness. This study examines the relative influence of habitat heterogeneity, climate, human disturbance, and spatial structure on the species-richness distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) in mainland Spain. The results indicate that spatial structure and environment exert similar influences on species richness. For all four taxa, species richness increases southward and northward, being lower in the center of the country, when controlled for other variables. This may be the result of a peninsular effect, as found in other studies, and reflect the importance of historical events on species richness in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate is more important than habitat heterogeneity in determining species richness. Temperature is positively correlated with amphibian, reptile, and bird species richness, while mammalian species richness is highest at intermediate temperatures. This effect is stronger in ectotherms than among endotherms, perhaps reflecting physiological differences. Precipitation positively correlates with bird and mammalian species richness, but has no effect on ectotherm species richness. Amphibian species richness increases with altitudinal range, and bird species richness with habitat diversity. Human population density is positively correlated with bird and mammalian species richness, but does not affect ectotherm species richness, while amphibian and bird species richness is highest at moderate levels of human land alteration (farmland). However, unexplained variance remains, and we discuss that the effects of environmental variables on species richness may vary geographically, causing different effects to be obscured on a national scale, diminishing the explanatory power of environmental variables.

No abstract