No abstract

Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting (STELF) through Data Analytics (DA) is an emerging and active research area. Forecasting about electricity load and price provides future trends and patterns of consumption. There is a loss in generation and use of electricity. So, multiple strategies are used to solve the aforementioned problems. Day-ahead electricity price and load forecasting are beneficial for both suppliers and consumers. In this paper, Deep Learning (DL) and data mining techniques are used for electricity load and price forecasting. XG-Boost (XGB), Decision Tree (DT), Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and Random Forest (RF) are used for feature selection and feature extraction. Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) and Enhanced Support Vector Regression (ESVR) are used as classifiers. Grid Search (GS) is used for tuning of the parameters of classifiers to increase their performance. The risk of over-fitting is mitigated by adding multiple layers in ECNN. Finally, the proposed models are compared with different benchmark schemes for stability analysis. The performance metrics MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The experimental results show that the proposed models outperformed other benchmark schemes. ECNN performed well with threshold 0.08 for load forecasting. While ESVR performed better with threshold value 0.15 for price forecasting. ECNN achieved almost 2% better accuracy than CNN. Furthermore, ESVR achieved almost 1% better accuracy than the existing scheme (SVR).

This paper focuses on analytics of an extremely large dataset of smart grid electricity price and load, which is difficult to process with conventional computational models. These data are known as energy big data. The analysis of big data divulges the deeper insights that help experts in the improvement of smart grid’s (SG) operations. Processing and extracting of meaningful information from data is a challenging task. Electricity load and price are the most influential factors in the electricity market. For improving reliability, control and management of electricity market operations, an exact estimate of the day ahead load is a substantial requirement. Energy market trade is based on price. Accurate price forecast enables energy market participants to make effective and most profitable bidding strategies. This paper proposes a deep learning-based model for the forecast of price and demand for big data using Deep Long Short-Term Memory (DLSTM). Due to the adaptive and automatic feature learning mechanism of Deep Neural Network (DNN), the processing of big data is easier with LSTM as compared to the purely data-driven methods. The proposed model was evaluated using well-known real electricity markets’ data. In this study, day and week ahead forecasting experiments were conducted for all months. Forecast performance was assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). The proposed Deep LSTM (DLSTM) method was compared to traditional Artificial Neural Network (ANN) time series forecasting methods, i.e., Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous variables (NARX) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). DLSTM outperformed the compared forecasting methods in terms of accuracy. Experimental results prove the efficiency of the proposed method for electricity price and load forecasting.

Abstract:In this work, we propose a Realistic Scheduling Mechanism (RSM) to reduce user frustration and enhance appliance utility by classifying appliances with respective constraints and their time of use effectively. Algorithms are proposed regarding functioning of home appliances. A 24 hour time slot is divided into four logical sub-time slots, each composed of 360 min or 6 h. In these sub-time slots, only desired appliances (with respect to appliance classification) are scheduled to raise appliance utility, restricting power consumption by a dynamically modelled power usage limiter that does not only take the electricity consumer into account but also the electricity supplier. Once appliance, time and power usage limiter modelling is done, we use a nature-inspired heuristic algorithm, Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO), optimally to form schedules with given constraints representing each sub-time slot. These schedules tend to achieve an equilibrium amongst appliance utility and cost effectiveness. For validation of the proposed RSM, we provide a comparative analysis amongst unscheduled electrical load usage, scheduled directly by BPSO and RSM, reflecting user comfort, which is based upon cost effectiveness and appliance utility.

The emergence of the Demand Response (DR) program optimizes the energy consumption pattern of customers and improves the efficacy of energy supply. The pricing infra-structure of the DR program is dynamic (time-based). It has rather complex features including marginal costs, demand and seasonal parameters. There is variation in DR price rate. Sometime prices go high (peak load) if the demand of electricity is more than the generation capacity. The main objective of DR is to encourage the consumer to shift the peak load and gets incentives in terms of cost reduction. However, prices remain the same for all the users even if they shift the peak load or not. In this work, Game Theory (GT)-based Time-of-Use (ToU) pricing model is presented to define the rates for on-peak and shoulder-peak hours. The price is defined for each user according to the utilize load. At first, the proposed model is examined using the ToU pricing scheme. Afterward, it is evaluated using existing day-ahead real-time pricing scheme. Moreover, shifting load from on-peak hours to off-peak hours may cause rebound peak in off-peak hours. To avert this issue, we analysis the impact of Salp Swam Algorithm (SSA) and Rainfall Algorithm (RFA) on user electricity bill and PAR after scheduling. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed GT-based ToU pricing scheme. Furthermore, the RFA outperformed SSA.