Recent theories of industry dynamics emphasize the role of financial frictions in determining post entry performance of firms. Testing these theories has been difficult because of the lack of financial data on small, young and private firms. Using a unique data set, T2LEAP, this paper considers the survival of new firms in Canadian manufacturing from a financial perspective. Duration analysis quantifies the effects of firm, industry and aggregate factors. Findings show that nonlinear effects are found with firm leverage. Finally, likelihood decompositions offer insights into the contributing factors to firm hazard for nine entry cohorts during the period 1985–1997.

the Fonds de recherche sur la société et la culture, Québec. We thank Trudy Ann Cameron, John Livernois and Carlos Ordás-Criado for useful comments and suggestions. Les cahiers de recherche du CREATE ne font pas l'objet d'un processus d'évaluation par les pairs/CREATE working papers do not undergo a peer review process. ISSN 1927-5544The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Tipping Points, We consider an empirical estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide and sulphur, with a focus on confidence set estimation of the tipping point. Various econometric -parametric and nonparametric -methods are considered, reflecting the implications of persistence, endogeneity, the necessity of breaking down our panel regionally, and the small number of countries within each panel. In particular, we propose an inference method that corrects for potential weak-identification of the tipping point. Weak identification may occur if the true EKC is linear while a quadratic income term is nevertheless imposed into the estimated equation. Relevant literature to date confirms that non-linearity of the EKC is indeed not granted, which provides the motivation for our work. Viewed collectively, our results confirm an inverted U-shaped EKC in the OECD countries but generally not elsewhere, although a local-pollutant analysis suggest favorable exceptions beyond the OECD. Our measures of uncertainty confirm that it is difficult to identify economically plausible tipping points. Policyrelevant estimates of the tipping point can nevertheless be recovered from a local-pollutant long-run or non-parametric perspective. Uncertainty and Weak IdentificationKeywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve, Fieller method, Delta method, CO 2 and SO 2 emissions, Confidence set, Tipping point, Climate policy Résumé:À partir de données empiriques, nous estimons la Courbe Environnementale de Kuznets (CEK) pour les émissions de gaz carbonique et de soufre en mettant l'accent sur l'ensemble de confiance du point de chute. Plusieurs méthodes économétriques -paramétriques et nonparamétriques -sont considérées ; ceci reflète les implications de la persistance, de l'endogénéité, de la nécessité de regrouper les pays par régions et du petit nombre de pays dans chaque groupe. En particulier, nous proposons une méthode d'inférence qui corrige pour l'identification potentiellement faible du point de chute. Celle-ci peut survenir si la vraie courbe CEK est linéaire et si un terme quadratique est quand même ajouté au moment de l'estimation. Les écrits antérieurs confirment que la non linéarité de la courbe CEK n'est pas acquise ; c'est d'ailleurs la justification de notre recherche. Pris dans leur ensemble, nos résultats confirment l'existence d'une courbe CEK en forme de U inversé pour les pays membres de l'OCDE, mais non pour les autres pays, même si les résultats pour le SO 2 sont quand même davantage favorables à l'existence d'une telle relation pour d'autres pays. Nos mesures d'incertitude confirment qu'il est très difficile d'identifier des points de ch...

A unique data set of post‐war English trained soccer players is used to study the impact of the youth training program they attended on their career and spell duration. Duration models in the spirit of Abbring and van den Berg are employed to estimate local treatment effects of different training programs on players — survival in the top European leagues. The results indicate that the duration patterns of players are dependent on the youth academy they attended. Certain clubs, with a well‐established reputation in developing youth talent, outperform others in terms of producing and evaluating the ability of their youth players to succeed in top European leagues. The spell analysis outlines the nature of the competitive environment in which smaller clubs have a chance to keep up with the larger ones in terms of producing and holding on to homegrown talent. Finally, the results of both analyses addressed unobserved heterogeneity, allowed for nonlinearity of covariates using the cubic spline methodology, and were tested for endogeneity bias using a split sample test.

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