Today, most military regimes have either given way to some form of democracy or been transformed into another form of authoritarianism. This article formulates a framework for the analysis of the detachment of militaries from politics and applies it to the case of Burma/Myanmar, which is an example of deeply entrenched military rule. It is argued that after the retreat from direct rule the military is still in control, although the regime has embarked on a series of reforms that have liberalized the political system. The article identifies the internal dynamics within the military regime as a prime motive. External factors played only an indirect role, as the growing dependence on China was seen as a threat among nationalistic circles. The military decided to bridge the internal impasse and end the external isolation only after it consolidated its own power, finally allowing the leadership succession to run smoothly.
For the most time since independence in 1948, Myanmar had been ruled by a ruthless military junta which also controlled large swathes of the economy. In 2008, the military promulgated, as part of its so-called "roadmap to democracy" process, a new constitution which foresaw the holding of free and fair elections for the country's new bicameral parliament. Notably, the military retained a de facto veto over future constitutional changes by reserving a quarter of the seats in both houses of parliament for military appointees. The new constitution also stipulated that the ministries for defence, home, and border affairs needed to be headed by military appointees, thus enshrining prerogatives for the military and paving the way for a system of hybrid governance. 2011 marked the beginning of a process of political transformation, with Senior General Than Shwe stepping down as head of the armed forces and as head of state. His hand-picked successor in the latter office, Thein Sein, became the first democratically elected president of Myanmar. Thein Sein proved willing to work with Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the oppositional National League for Democracy (NLD) which successfully registered for national elections later in the year. In the parliamentary byelections of 2012, the NLD won forty-three of the available forty-five seats, with
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