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ObjectivesExisting scores are not accurate at predicting mortality in upper (UGIB) and lower (LGIB) gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new pre-endoscopy score for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB.Design and settingInternational cohort study. Patients presenting to hospital with UGIB at six international centres were used to develop a risk score for predicting mortality using regression analyses. The score’s performance in UGIB and LGIB was externally validated and compared with existing scores using four international datasets. We calculated areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, specificities and outcome among patients classified as low risk and high risk.Participants and resultsWe included 3012 UGIB patients in the development cohort, and 4019 UGIB and 2336 LGIB patients in the validation cohorts. Age, Blood tests and Comorbidities (ABC) score was closer associated with mortality in UGIB and LGIB (AUROCs: 0.81–84) than existing scores (AUROCs: 0.65–0.75; p≤0.02). In UGIB, patients with low ABC score (≤3), medium ABC score (4–7) and high ABC score (≥8) had 30-day mortality rates of 1.0%, 7.0% and 25%, respectively. Patients classified low risk using ABC score had lower mortality than those classified low risk with AIMS65 (threshold ≤1) (1.0 vs 4.5%; p<0.001). In LGIB, patients with low, medium and high ABC scores had in-hospital mortality rates of 0.6%, 6.3% and 18%, respectively.ConclusionsIn contrast to previous scores, ABC score has good performance for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB, allowing early identification and targeted management of patients at high or low risk of death.

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Over a period of 7 years the use of SBCE in Lombardia increased steadily confirming, in clinical practice, a high diagnostic yield and an acceptable safety profile.

The IL-1 receptor antagonist, anakinra, may represent a therapeutic option for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, COVID-19 ARDS patients admitted to the Azienda Socio Sanitaria Territoriale of Lecco, Italy, between March 5th to April 15th, 2020, and who had received anakinra off-label were retrospectively evaluated and compared with a cohort of matched controls who did not receive immunomodulatory treatment. The primary end point was survival at day 28. The population consisted of 112 patients (56 treated with anakinra and 56 controls). Survival at day 28 was obtained in 69 patients (61.6%) and was significantly higher in anakinra-treated patients than in the controls (75.0 versus 48.2%, p = 0.007). When stratified by continuous positive airway pressure support at baseline, anakinra-treated patients’ survival was also significant compared with the controls (p = 0.008). Univariate analysis identified anakinra usage (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.47–7.17) as a significant survival predictor. This was not supported by multivariate modeling. The rate of infectious-related adverse events was similar between groups. In conclusion, anakinra improved overall survival and invasive ventilation-free survival and was well tolerated in patients with ARDS associated with COVID-19.