A consequence of similar institutional conditions of domestic labor markets in Europe is the permanent occurrence of the “labor hoarding” phenomenon, which entails non-immediate adaptation of employment to production changes. The article verifies whether the phenomenon of labor hoarding occurs in the European Union countries and what is its level and the direction of changes between 1996 and 2016. The empirical study of employment adjustments to the production volume showed that in the examined period the phenomenon of labor hoarding occurred in all countries of the European Union (excluding Spain). Labor hoarding was accomplished through a slight adjustment of the number of employees to production changes. At the same time, it was noticed that the companies were more flexible with adjusting the number of hours worked. This was particularly evident during global crises and was the consequence of other vital changes in national economies.
Purpose: The article aims to analyze and evaluate the relationship between the Purchasing Managers' Index PMI (economic sentiment indicator) and GDP dynamics in the Polish economy. The subject of detailed research was the possibility of forecasting Poland's economic situation using a model built based on the PMI sentiment indicator. Approach/Methodology/Design: The study used data on GDP dynamics, EUR/PLN and USD/PLN exchange rates, as well as two indicators of economic sentiment prepared by independent institutions for Poland: the PMI and ESI indicator. The analysis was based on quarterly data for the period from the third quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2019 (84 observations). PMI data came from the bankier.pl website, ESI data from the European Commission database, GDP dynamics data from the World Bank database, and exchange rate information was taken from the stooq.pl website. The analysis contained in the article was performed using the ARDL and ECM models. Findings: The analysis showed that the model based on PMI indicator and the model based on ESI indicator is too inaccurate to be considered a tool for forecasting the economic situation in Poland. It also turned out that extension of the model with other explanatory variables increased its accuracy of fitting to real data. Practical Implications: Even though the estimated models were significantly unreliable, it turned out that in periods of greater economic instability, the PMI model showed better forecasting properties. This indicates the possibility of using the PMI model, e.g., in times of recession or economic crisis. Originality/Value: The article broadened the research perspective for forecasting the Polish economy. The results set the directions for further development of research in this aspect. It turned out that probably the optimal solution would be to create different models for different phases of the business cycle, or a different rate of economic growth.
This article deals with the issue of human capital as a factor responsible for the emergence of development inequalities in rural areas. Its main goal is to analyze and evaluate the existing differences in the distribution of human capital resources in rural areas in Poland in relation to their socio-economic situation. The essence of human capital is expressed through the analogy of energy and capital in relation to the concept of homo energeticus. The essence of human capital is also expressed in terms of two components of its structure, i.e., health and the labor market. The level of human capital was expressed using two synthetic measures, i.e., the human capital ratio in the field of health (HCH) and the labor market (HCLM). The obtained research results indicate the existing differences in the spatial distribution of human capital, resulting in a polarization effect in the center-periphery system, and showing relations with the socio-economic structure of rural areas, their agricultural function, and the ongoing population processes. The assumption about the existing relations between the individual components of the structure of human capital, i.e., health and the labor market, with the socio-economic situation of individual communes should be considered correct. The obtained results of the empirical analysis constitute an important contribution to the description of the mechanism explaining the causes of the existing disproportions in the level of rural development; they allow for a more optimal planning of the instruments supporting their development at the local level. The empirical analysis was carried out in spatial terms with regard to rural areas in Poland defined in accordance with the administrative criterion of the Central Statistical Office at the lowest local (rural) level of data aggregation. The analysis covers rural and urban-rural communes in Poland, i.e., 2172 spatial units. The source of data for the synthetic measures (HCH and HCLM) was Local Data Bank Statistics Poland (LDB SP), and that for the indicator of the level of socio-economic development for rural areas (S-EDI) was the European Fund for Polish Rural Development (EFRWP).
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