Normative models are a class of emerging statistical techniques useful for understanding the heterogeneous biology underlying psychiatric disorders at the level of the individual participant. Analogous to normative growth charts used in paediatric medicine for plotting child development in terms of height or weight as a function of age, normative models chart variation in clinical cohorts in terms of mappings between quantitative biological measures and clinically relevant variables. An emerging body of literature has demonstrated that such techniques are excellent tools for parsing the heterogeneity in clinical cohorts by providing statistical inferences at the level of the individual participant with respect to the normative range. Here, we provide a unifying review of the theory and application of normative modelling for understanding the biological and clinical heterogeneity underlying mental disorders. We first provide a statistically grounded yet non-technical overview of the conceptual underpinnings of normative modelling and propose a conceptual framework to link the many different methodological approaches that have been proposed for this purpose. We survey the literature employing these techniques, focusing principally on applications of normative modelling to quantitative neuroimaging-based biomarkers in psychiatry and, finally, we provide methodological considerations and recommendations to guide future applications of these techniques. We show that normative modelling provides a means by which the importance of modelling individual differences can be brought from theory to concrete data analysis procedures for understanding heterogeneous mental disorders and ultimately a promising route towards precision medicine in psychiatry.

Defining reference models for population variation, and the ability to study individual deviations is essential for understanding inter-individual variability and its relation to the onset and progression of medical conditions. In this work, we assembled a reference cohort of neuroimaging data from 82 sites (N=58,836; ages 2-100) and use normative modeling to characterize lifespan trajectories of cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Models are validated against a manually quality checked subset (N=24,354) and we provide an interface for transferring to new data sources. We showcase the clinical value by applying the models to a transdiagnostic psychiatric sample (N=1,985), showing they can be used to quantify variability underlying multiple disorders whilst also refining case-control inferences. These models will be augmented with additional samples and imaging modalities as they become available. This provides a common reference platform to bind results from different studies and ultimately paves the way for personalized clinical decision making.

Background The neuroanatomical basis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has remained elusive, mostly owing to high biological and clinical heterogeneity among diagnosed individuals. Despite considerable effort toward understanding ASD using neuroimaging biomarkers, heterogeneity remains a barrier, partly because studies mostly employ case-control approaches, which assume that the clinical group is homogeneous. Methods Here, we used an innovative normative modeling approach to parse biological heterogeneity in ASD. We aimed to dissect the neuroanatomy of ASD by mapping the deviations from a typical pattern of neuroanatomical development at the level of the individual and to show the necessity to look beyond the case-control paradigm to understand the neurobiology of ASD. We first estimated a vertexwise normative model of cortical thickness development using Gaussian process regression, then mapped the deviation of each participant from the typical pattern. For this, we employed a heterogeneous cross-sectional sample of 206 typically developing individuals (127 males) and 321 individuals with ASD (232 males) (6–31 years of age). Results We found few case-control differences, but the ASD cohort showed highly individualized patterns of deviations in cortical thickness that were widespread across the brain. These deviations correlated with severity of repetitive behaviors and social communicative symptoms, although only repetitive behaviors survived corrections for multiple testing. Conclusions Our results 1) reinforce the notion that individuals with ASD show distinct, highly individualized trajectories of brain development and 2) show that by focusing on common effects (i.e., the “average ASD participant”), the case-control approach disguises considerable interindividual variation crucial for precision medicine.

No abstract