BackgroundBacterial vaginosis (BV) increases the risk of spontaneous preterm deliveries (PD) in developed countries. Its prevalence varies with ethnicity, socioeconomic conditions and gestational age. Aerobic vaginitis (AV) has also been implicated with spontaneous PD. The present study aimed to estimate the prevalence of asymptomatic BV, the accuracy of vaginal pH level to predict BV and to estimate the risk of spontaneous PD <34 and <37 weeks’ gestation of BV and AV.MethodsWomen attending prenatal public services in Rio de Janeiro were screened to select asymptomatic pregnant women, < 20 weeks’ gestation, with no indication for elective PD and without risk factors of spontaneous PD. Vaginal smears of women with vaginal pH > = 4.5 were collected to determine the Nugent score; a sample of those smears was also classified according to a modified Donders’ score. Primary outcomes were spontaneous PD < 34 and <37 weeks’ gestation and abortion.ResultsPrevalence of asymptomatic BV was estimated in 28.1% (n = 1699); 42.4% of the smears were collected before 14 weeks’ gestation. After an 8-week follow up, nearly 40% of the initially BV positive women became BV negative. The prevalence of BV among white and black women was 28.1% (95% CI: 24.6%-32.0%) and 32.5% (95% CI: 28.2%-37.2%), respectively. The sensitivity of vaginal pH= > 4.5 and = > 5.0 to predict BV status was 100% and 82%, correspondingly; the 5.0 cutoff value doubled the specificity, from 41% to 84%. The incidence of < 37 weeks’ spontaneous PDs among BV pregnant women with a pH= > 4.5 was 3.8%. The RR of spontaneous PD < 34 and <37 weeks among BV women with pH > =4.5, as compared with those with intermediate state, were 1.24 and 1.86, respectively (Fisher’s exact test, p value = 1; 0.52, respectively, both ns). No spontaneous case of PD or abortion was associated with severe or moderate AV.ConclusionsA high prevalence of asymptomatic BV was observed without statistically significant difference between black and white women. The RRs of spontaneous PD < 34 and <37 weeks among women with BV, as compared with those with intermediate state were not statistically significant but were consistent with those found in the literature.

BackgroundBacterial vaginosis increases the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery at less than 34 weeks of gestation.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the early administration of selected lactobacilli strains (probiotics) to pregnant women with asymptomatic bacterial vaginosis/intermediate-degree infections to prevent spontaneous premature delivery and associated neonatal morbidity.Methods/DesignAsymptomatic pregnant women at less than 20 weeks of gestation, with no indication of elective preterm delivery, with a vaginal pH ≥ 4.5 and Nugent score > 3 were randomly assigned to the placebo or intervention group (oral administration of selected lactobacilli up to the 24th to 26th week of gestation). The randomisation was stratified for the history of premature delivery (HPD) and blocked. The allocation was concealed, and the participating health professionals and patients were blinded. The primary outcome was preterm delivery (<34 to <32 weeks), and the secondary outcomes were associated neonatal complications.ResultsIn total, 4,204 pregnant women were screened; 320 and 324 individuals were respectively randomly assigned to the placebo and intervention groups, and 62% finished the trial. None of the randomised patients were lost to follow-up. For the non-HPD stratum, the intent-to-treat relative risks of spontaneous premature birth at < 34 and < 37 weeks' gestation were 0.33 (0.03, 3.16) and 0.49 (0.17, 1.44), respectively, and they were non-significant (ns) with p = 0.31 and 0.14. The corresponding actual treatment figures were zero and 0.32 (0.09, 1.19), which were ns with p = 0.12 and 0.06. The intent-to-treat relative risk of spontaneous premature birth at < 37 weeks of gestation for the trial as a whole, including HPD and non-HPD participants, was 0.69 (0.26, 1.78), p = 0.30 (ns). The neonatal complications under evaluation occurred in only one infant (< 34 weeks; placebo group) who presented with respiratory distress syndrome and suspected early neonatal sepsis. The recorded adverse events were minor and relatively non-specific.ConclusionsThe efficacy of the tested probiotics to prevent preterm delivery among women without a history of preterm delivery was not determined because the study sample was insufficient to estimate statistically significant intent-to-treat effects; additional studies are needed to evaluate this intervention among these women.Trial registrationTrial registration at NIH register: NCT00303082. Sources of funding: the Brazilian Health Ministry and the State of Rio de Janeiro Research Foundation.

In a time series analysis it is sometimes necessary to assume that the effect of a regressor does not have only immediate impact on the mean response, but that its effects somehow propagate to future times. We adopt, in this work, transfer functions to model such impacts, represented by structural blocks present in dynamic generalized linear models. All the inference is carried under the Bayesian paradigm. Two sources of difficulties emerge for the analytical derivation of posterior distributions: non-Gaussian nature of the response, associated to non-conjugate priors and also nonlinearity of the predictor on autoregressive parameters present in transfer functions. The purpose of this work is to produce full Bayesian inference on dynamic generalized linear models with transfer functions, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to build samples of the posterior joint distribution of the parameters involved in such models. Several transfer structures are specified, associated to Poisson, Binomial, Gamma and inverse Gaussian responses. Simulated data are analyzed under the resulting models in order to assess their performance. Finally, two applications to real data concerning environmental sciences are made under different model formulations.