Objective-A systematic reanalysis of 10 year coronary heart disease incidence data from the northern and the southern European cohorts of the seven countries study, to contribute indirectly to the production of a European coronary risk chart. Design and setting-Men aged 40-59 years at entry were studied in three northern European cohorts based in Finland and Netherlands (n = 2213); and in 10 southern European cohorts based in Italy, former Yugoslavia, and Greece (n = 5897). Multiple logistic models for the prediction of coronary deaths, coronary incidence (hard criteria), and coronary incidence (any criterion) were solved for the two geographical groups and their pool. Risk factors fed into the models were age, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, and cigarette smoking. Results-10 year coronary heart disease mortality and incidence were higher in northern than in southern Europe, with ratios around 2.65. Ratios among the three coronary heart disease manifestations were identical in the two cultural groupings. CoeYcients of the multiple logistic models were similar and not significantly diVerent between the two groupings. When applying the coeYcients back to the same or the opposite population, the relative risk was large and similar in the diVerent cultures. Relative risk was larger for more severe coronary heart disease manifestations. The absolute risk was overestimated when applying the northern European model to southern European populations and vice versa, with ratios of about 1.5 and 0.5, respectively. Coronary risk charts created to reproduce the shape of those incorporated in recent European guidelines confirmed the excess of absolute risk in the northern compared with the southern European cohorts, all else being equal. Conclusions-In theory, a more appropriate European coronary risk chart could be produced by adopting coeYcients to correct for diVerent background incidence rates in diVerent cultures. Other coeYcients could appropriately be used to transform mortality risk into incidence risk. (Heart 2000;84:238-244)

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Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 years at entry were examined with the measurement of some risk factors and then followed-up for mortality and causes of death for 25 years. These cohorts were located in the USA (1 cohort), Finland (2), the Netherlands (1), Italy (3), the former Yugoslavia (5), Greece (2), and Japan (2), and included a total of 12,763 subjects. Large differences in age-adjusted coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates were found, with extremes of 45 per 1000 in 25 years in Tanushimaru, Japan, to 288 per 1000 in 25 years in East Finland. In general, higher rates were found in the US and Northern European cohorts as compared to the Southern European and Japanese cohorts. However, during the last 10 years of follow-up large increases of CHD death rates were found in some Yugoslavian areas. Out of 5 measured entry characteristics treated as age-adjusted levels (serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index and physical activity at work), only serum cholesterol was significant in explaining cohort differences in CHD death rates. Over 50% of the variance in CHD death rates in 25 years was accounted for by the difference in mean serum cholesterol. This association tended to decline with increasing length of follow-up, but this was due to the great changes in mean serum cholesterol in the two Yugoslavian cohorts of Velika Krsna and Zrenjanin. When these two cohorts were excluded the association increased with time. Changes in mean serum cholesterol between year 0 and 10 helped in explaining differences in CHD death rates from year 10 onward. It can be concluded that this study suggests that mean serum cholesterol is the major risk factor in explaining cross-cultural differences in CHD.