Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide. Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence. The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango, Mexico. For this purpose, data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed. The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use, susceptibility of vegetation, temperature, precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method, under an Ordinary Least Square estimator. Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use, and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables. In addition, vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors. The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables. Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors, and when these factors coexist with human activities, there is high probability of forest fire occurrence. Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.

Understanding the spatiotemporal links between drought and forest fire occurrence is crucial for improving decision-making in fire management under current and future climatic conditions. We quantified forest fire activity in Mexico using georeferenced fire records for the period of 2005-2015 and examined its spatial and temporal relationships with a multiscalar drought index, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). A total of 47 975 fire counts were recorded in the 11-year long study period, with the peak in fire frequency occurring in 2011. We identified four fire clusters, i.e., regions where there is a high density of fire records in Mexico using the Getis-Ord G spatial statistic. Then, we examined fire frequency data in the clustered regions and assessed how fire activity related to the SPEI for the entire study period and also for the year 2011. Associations between the SPEI and fire frequency varied across Mexico and fire-SPEI relationships also varied across the months of major fire occurrence and related SPEI temporal scales. In particular, in the two fire clusters located in northern Mexico (Chihuahua, northern Baja California), drier conditions over the previous 5 months triggered fire occurrence. In contrast, we did not observe a significant relationship between drought severity and fire frequency in the central Mexico cluster, which exhibited the highest fire frequency. We also found moderate fire-drought associations in the cluster situated in the tropical southern Chiapas where agriculture activities are the main causes of forest fire occurrence. These results are useful for improving our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence as related to drought severity in megadiverse countries hosting many forest types as Mexico.

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An improved understanding of how tree species will respond to warmer conditions and longer droughts requires comparing their responses across different environmental settings and considering a multi-proxy approach. We used several traits (tree-ring width, formation of intra-annual density fluctuations -IADFs, wood anatomy, ∆ 13 C and δ 18 O records) to retrospectively quantify these responses in three conifers inhabiting drought-prone areas in northwestern Mexico. A fir species (Abies durangensis) was studied in a higher altitude and slightly rainier site and two pine species were sampled in a nearby, lower drier site (Pinus engelmannii, Pinus cembroides). Tree-ring-width indices (TRWi) of the studied species showed a very similar year-to-year variability likely indicating a common climatic signal.Wood anatomy analyses done over 3.5 million measured cells and showed that P. cembroides lumen area was much smaller than in the other two species and it remained constant along all the studied period (over 64 years). Instead, cell wall thickness was widest in P. engelmannii and this species presented the highest amount of intra-annual density fluctuations. Climate and wood anatomy correlations pointed out that lumen area was positively affected by winter precipitation for all studied species, while cell-wall thickness was negatively affected by this season's precipitation in all species but P. cembroides. Stable isotope analysis showed significantly lower values of Δ 13 C for P. cembroides and no significant δ 18 O differences between the three species, although they shared a common decreasing trend. With very distinct wood anatomical traits (smaller cells, compact morphology), P. cembroides stood out as the better adapted species in its current environment and could be less affected by future drier climate. P. engelmannii and A. durangensis showed high plasticity at wood anatomical level, allowing them to promptly respond to seasonal water availability but likely gives few advantages on future climate scenarios with longer and frequent drought spells.