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A quantitative risk assessment was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Northern Italy. Exposure assessment considered the microbiological status of dairy farms, expected milk contamination, storage conditions from bulk tank to home storage, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, age of consumers, serving size, and consumption preference. The differential risk between milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst field handling conditions was considered. The probability of Campylobacter jejuni infection was modeled with a single-hit dose-response beta-Poisson model, whereas for HUS an exponential dose-response model was chosen and two probabilities were used to model the higher susceptibility of children younger than 5 years old. For every 10,000 to 20,000 consumers each year, the models predicted for the best and worst storage conditions, respectively, 2.12 and 1.14 campylobacteriosis cases and 0.02 and 0.09 HUS cases in the 0- to 5-year age group and 0.1 and 0.5 HUS cases in the >5-year age group. The expected pediatric HUS cases do not differ considerably from those reported in Italy by the Minister of Health. The model developed may be a useful tool for extending the assessment of the risk of campylobacteriosis and HUS due to raw milk consumption at the national level in Italy. Considering the epidemiological implications of this study, the risk of illness linked to raw milk consumption should not be ignored and could be reduced by the use of simple measures. Boiling milk before consumption and strict control of temperatures by farmers during raw milk distribution have significant effects on campylobacteriosis and HUS and are essential measures for risk management.

BackgroundFoodborne Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) outbreaks are being recognized as an emerging public health problem in industrialized countries. In 2013 three foodborne HAV outbreaks occurred in Europe and one in USA. During the largest of the three European outbreaks, most cases occurred in Italy (>1,200 cases as of March 31, 2014). A national Task Force was established at the beginning of the outbreak by the Ministry of Health. Mixed frozen berries were early demonstrated to be the source of infection by the identity of viral sequences in patients and in food. In the present study the molecular characterization of HAV isolates from 355 Italian cases is reported.MethodsMolecular characterization was carried out by PCR/sequencing (VP1/2A region), comparison with reference strains and phylogenetic analysis.ResultsA unique strain was responsible for most characterized cases (235/355, 66.1%). Molecular data had a key role in tracing this outbreak, allowing 110 out of the 235 outbreak cases (46.8%) to be recognized in absence of any other link. The data also showed background circulation of further unrelated strains, both autochthonous and travel related, whose sequence comparison highlighted minor outbreaks and small clusters, most of them unrecognized on the basis of epidemiological data. Phylogenetic analysis showed most isolates from travel related cases clustering with reference strains originating from the same geographical area of travel.ConclusionsIn conclusion, the study documents, in a real outbreak context, the crucial role of molecular analysis in investigating an old but re-emerging pathogen. Improving the molecular knowledge of HAV strains, both autochthonous and circulating in countries from which potentially contaminated foods are imported, will become increasingly important to control outbreaks by supporting trace back activities, aiming to identify the geographical source(s) of contaminated food, as well as public health interventions.

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