Introduction: The problem of diseases of the digestive system has a pronounced social and economic impact, as it often leads to long-term sick leave, disability, and mortality. The study of the structure of gastrointestinal disease incidence and the analysis of its rates facilitate improvement of preventive measures aimed at reducing the incidence both at the regional and national levels. Objective: To make a short-term forecast of the incidence of gastrointestinal diseases in the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: The time series of data was retrieved from statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) for the years 1990–2021 and studied using the Foster–Stuart, Dickey–Fuller, and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin tests. Forecasting was carried out using the Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins models. The mean absolute error and root mean square error were estimated to evaluate the forecast accuracy. Results: The time series study of the incidence of digestive diseases has helped build a predictive model. Its findings show an increase in the incidence of gastrointestinal disorders in the country since 2021, which complies with Rosstat data. Conclusion: The forecasts made using the developed predictive model confirm the rising incidence of diseases of the digestive system in the population of the Russian Federation.

No abstract

Introduction: A steady increase in the incidence of malignant neoplasms was registered in the Primorsky Region in 2009–2019 with the rate rising by 26.1 %. The statistical analysis of the relationship between quality of life indicators and disease contributes to identifying significant risk factors, the consideration of which will improve the set of measures aimed at promoting a healthy lifestyle and encouraging regular medical checkups in order to reduce cancer incidence and mortality rates. Objective: To establish external carcinogenic risk factors in the Primorsky Region. Materials and methods: The study was conducted based on statistical data from the local offices of the Federal Service for State Statistics and the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing for 2007–2019. We did correlation and regression analyses of the collected information and applied the principal component analysis to reduce dimensionality of the data. Results: The statistical data analysis revealed the principal components and their association with the incidence of malignant neoplasms of five sites in the Primorsky Region. Conclusion: In addition to genetic predispositions, the lifestyle strongly contributes to the development of cancer, which must be taken into account when elaborating appropriate preventive measures at the regional level.

No abstract