Background Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). Methods Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. Results As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18–185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112–1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. Conclusions Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.
Background To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. Methods Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015–2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015–2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality. Results Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the <45 age group. Conclusions This study highlights that excess all-cause mortality during 2020 is context dependent, with specific countries, sex- and age-groups being most affected. As the pandemic continues, tracking excess mortality is important to accurately estimate the true toll of COVID-19, while at the same time investigating the effects of changing contexts, different variants, testing, quarantine, and vaccination strategies.
This paper provides a framework to analyze the maturity of humanitarian logistics systems to face crisis situations related to recurrent events, and thus to identify the main areas of action and the community needs in terms of crisis logistics planning. First, the main notions of humanitarian logistics systems planning, and the theoretical contribution of maturity models are presented. Second, a maturity model for humanitarian logistics systems is proposed and the main categories of elements defining maturity extracted from literature. Then, the methodology to define the main elements of the maturity model via evidence is presented. This methodology combines a literature overview, a documentary analysis, and the development of three case studies, two located in Colombia and one in Peru. The main elements that characterize capability maturity model in humanitarian logistics systems facing recurrent crises are identified, from which the administration of donations, design of a distribution network, and the choice of suppliers are highlighted. The practical implications of the framework are proposed to allow its use to anticipate humanitarian logistics system for future crises. The framework allowed a first analysis guide and will be further extended.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to improve disaster management models, have an optimal distribution of assets, reduce human suffering in a crisis and find a good solution for warehouse locations, distribution points, inventory levels and costs, considering the uncertainty of a wide range of variables, to serve as a support model for decision making in real situations. Design/methodology/approach A model is developed based on the recent models. It includes structured and non-structured data (historical knowledge) from a humanitarian perspective. This model considers the uncertainty in a landslide and flood area and it is applied in a representative Peruvian city. Findings The proposed model can be used to determine humanitarian aid supply and its distribution with uncertainty, regarding the affected population and its resilience. This model presents a different point of view from the efficiency of the logistics perspective, to identify the level of trust between all the stakeholders (public, private and academic). The finding provides a new insight in disaster management to cover the gap between applied research and human behavior in crisis. Research limitations/implications In this study the access of reliable information is limited. Practical implications This paper provides an operation model with uncertainty in a humanitarian crisis and a decision-making tool with some recommendation for further public policies. Originality/value This study presents a model for decision makers in a low-income zone and highlights the importance of preparedness in the humanitarian system. This paper expands the discussion of how the mathematical models and human behaviors interact with different perspectives in a humanitarian crisis.
This chapter recommends applying block chain technology to the cocoa supply chain. Using this technology, it will be possible to show and guarantee the traceability of the final product. Traceability in the cocoa chain begins in the production stages (harvest and post-harvest) to obtain relevant data related to cocoa beans and their producers, promptly, until finding the raw material origin and inputs used during the process. The material provider's name must be considered, as well as the manufacturer's expiration date, the batch number, and the production area's reception date. This is why authors recommend using Block chain, which is a data structure that stores information chronologically in interlinked blocks. It works as a digital master book and the participants reach an agreement to register any information in the blocks. Throughout the chapter, authors show how to apply this technology.
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